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, 8 tweets, 4 min read
🚨 NEW: Senior Irish source says this No.10 claim - via @thetimes’ @hzeffman - that Varadkar told Johnson he’d compromise on Brexit, if Northern Ireland stayed in the EU’s single market, is either “untrue or a major misunderstanding”
They point out that the current British proposals would NOT see Northern Ireland remain in the EU’s own customs union, but rather a member of a ‘customs union compromised of the EU and the UK’
No Irish reaction yet to the separate @TheTimes story this morning that the EU will agree to a Northern Ireland-only backstop which could be revoked only if both communities agreed to it in Stormont thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…
^ Above story was by Times’ @oliver_wright, not Henry
Also new: I understand that this new Times story about a ‘Stormont double-veto to end a NI-only backstop’ is news to the ears of the Irish govt, who hadn’t heard it before @BrunoBrussels’ report this morning
NEW: Taoiseach tells #Dáil that anonymous briefings aren’t always reliable, and EU’s negotiating guidelines haven’t changed… but that any solution on #Brexit for NI must have the consent of the people of NI. Not explicitly slapping down the notion of a ‘double veto’ at all
VIDEO: Varadkar doesn't quite kill the notion of giving Stormont the power to end a NI-only backstop
MORE: Varadkar says the big current problem with the UK's proposal is that it insists NI must leave the customs union even when the NI public want to stay
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
More on this idea after talking to senior sources in Dublin:

The 'double veto' idea was originally discussed with Theresa May, who wouldn't countenance anything which left Northern Ireland operating under a different regime to GB on Day One post-Brexit/transition period.
I'm told that Ireland has no objection to it in principle - "We've always been open to a democratic backstop" - but there's never been serious engagement on it, and few think it would fly in Westminster given current state of play (viz. @eastantrimmp already criticising it today)
Ireland's position in effect is that Northern Ireland, having opposed Brexit and supported the original Backstop, ought to be allowed to remain outside NI to remain in a customs union with the EU on Day One post-Brexit.

That's why this proposal would fall, as the PM won't buy it
Read 7 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
Bet you didn’t think we’d still be here in October 2019 for the fourth budget of Confidence & Supply, says FF’s Michael McGrath - “the process is far less advanced now” than for the previous three
McGrath says there is “some scope” for tax cuts, which seems to go against what he had said previously if the budget was being designed for a no-deal scenario
McGrath: Govt hasn’t yet presented its social protection proposals, but “nothing is off the table” regarding rates - music to Willie O’Dea’s ears
Read 4 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
🚨 "We cannot support any proposal that suggests one party, or indeed a minority, in NI could make the decisions for the majority in terms of how these proposals would be implemented in the future. That wouldn't be consistent with the GFA, not something we could possibly support"
Coveney adds: Barnier taskforce "will not go into some kind of tunnel process" - transparency needed on these talks, he says
🚨 Coveney: "My judgement is that Boris Johnson does want a deal, and the paper published yesterday was an effort to move us in the direction of a deal... but I agree that if that is the final proposal, there would be no deal."
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Daniel Ferrie
@DanielFerrie
.@NatashaBertaud: “@JunckerEU stressed that the Withdrawal Agreement must have a legally operational solution - not arrangements to be developed and agreed in the transition period.”
“This solution must meet all the objectives of the backstop: preventing a hard border, preserving North-South cooperation and the all-island economy, and protecting the EU’s Single Market and Ireland’s place in it.”
“President @JunckerEU will speak to Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar this afternoon and will reiterate the EU’s continued unity and solidarity behind Ireland.”
Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Reports👇saying Johnson government is briefing that Ireland will be under huge pressure to compromise over backstop bc of impact of no deal but reality is a) minority Irish gov under most domestic pressure NOT to buckle over backstop /1 irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
b)There’s little EU appetite “throw Ireland under a bus”. EU diplomats say “gentle pressure” would be put on Dublin if they thought current UK backstop proposals were realistic BUT they don’t .. so no EU pressure on Varadkar to compromise right now /2
Where there is EU behind-the-scenes pressure on Dublin is to ensure their no deal #Brexit border preparations are up to scratch to protect single market .. though Brussels acknowledges the political sensitivity of those preparations for Varadkar /3
Read 3 tweets
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David Phinnemore
@DPhinnemore
Is the #Brexit #backstop anti-democratic?

A persistent argument against it is the claim that it makes Northern Ireland a voiceless "rule-taker".

Here's a mega-thread based on research with @hayward_katy taking a closer look at this issue.

1/25
Boris Johnson insists on calling the backstop ‘anti-democratic’ noting that there is no ‘sovereign’ means of exiting it and it applies to ‘large areas of single market legislation in Northern Ireland’ over which the people of NI have ‘no influence’

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

2/25
The DUP take a similar line.

Nigel Dodds has claimed that the backstop ‘would see laws made in Brussels impacting the economy of Northern Ireland with no-one in London or Belfast able to vote on them or even ask a question about them.

mydup.com/news/article/c…

3/25
Read 25 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU politicians welcome the serious tone used by PM in Dublin today when spoke of importance of making deal with EU, avoiding no deal #Brexit BUT EU contacts tell me they await a change in actions not just rhetoric /1
The PMs main #Brexit envoy, David Frost, expected back in Brussels on Weds. So far EU says he’s been discussing reducing backstop commitments rather than proposing st that could realistically replace the backstop /2
Government floated idea of all-Ireland agricultural area but EU don’t consider this a serious proposal bc only covers 30% of cross-border trade. EU will see on Weds if PM’s negotiator brings additional ideas. If not EU diplomats say it’ll be clear PM not seriously negotiating /3
Read 6 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Little expectation in EU today that the Withdrawal Agreement will pass. Of it does, EU leaders would be mightily relieved. UK would then have till 22 May to sort out political declaration .. which can still be negotiated. Not legally binding /1
EU mood is one of resignation now. For first time this week a no deal #Brexit is being viewed and discussed as a v real possibility. Rather than a distant, unlikely prospect /2
At yesterday’s meeting of ambassadors of the 27 EU countries, I’m told diplomats tackled ‘hot potato’ EU issues head-on that they preferred to avoid before as long as no deal seemed so unlikely /3
Read 9 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
Clearly @ajcdeane has never read an EU FTA or the WTO TBT agreement. His deregulation fantasy is not going to happen and there will be no generic equivalence agreement.

#Brexit
More to the point, a generic equivalence agreement means the EU redefining single market system integrity. Not going to happen. If we diverge without consultation and coordination then there is no frictionless trade. It cannot and will not compromise the single market.
Deane is not alone in his delusions. We are seeing the Hannanisation of the Brexit trade agenda whereupon the UK goes into battle with a head full of misapprehensions and delusions only to be told unequivocally that it cannot happen. A brick wall awaits.
Read 15 tweets

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