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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Reports👇saying Johnson government is briefing that Ireland will be under huge pressure to compromise over backstop bc of impact of no deal but reality is a) minority Irish gov under most domestic pressure NOT to buckle over backstop /1 irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
b)There’s little EU appetite “throw Ireland under a bus”. EU diplomats say “gentle pressure” would be put on Dublin if they thought current UK backstop proposals were realistic BUT they don’t .. so no EU pressure on Varadkar to compromise right now /2
Where there is EU behind-the-scenes pressure on Dublin is to ensure their no deal #Brexit border preparations are up to scratch to protect single market .. though Brussels acknowledges the political sensitivity of those preparations for Varadkar /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
I hate to be the thrower of cold water but when it comes to new UK proposals, whatever they might be, if PM moves towards EU position on customs, he’s likely to lose most/all DUP +ERG support. New deal must be agreed not only by PM + EU but also by majority of MPs /1
EU diplomats also sceptical Boris Johnson would want to be seen to be ‘conceding’ to EU ahead of elex, with Brexit Party breathing down his neck. EU fear is the PM might enter intensive negotiations, get a concession from EU and then pull out.. /2
Putting EU concession in back pocket - for electoral advantage at home - but leaving EU with no deal and having just played a major card .. Such is the level of mistrust between the two sides /3
Read 5 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
After meeting the PM, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says: a new #Brexit deal is still possible this month. Now up to Commission. Hopes negotiations can restart. Said it’s not about which side makes concessions. It’s about getting a deal done so UK can leave EU on 31 October.. /1
So does this mean the two men came suddenly came to a compromise solution behind closed doors? Varadkar said they’d agreed not to talk about the details (in public, one assumes) ? /2
Or, to put a more cynical hat on: is the Irish PM - who was all smiles while making his statement- determined to push back at the bogeyman image the Johnson government have bestowed on him: ‘a naysayer, waiting for new extension, hoping for second referendum/far softer Brexit’ /3
Read 7 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU diplomats I speak to view the no10 readout of the conversation between the PM and Angela Merkel as "Boris-on-the-campaign-trail" /1
A diplomat from northern Europe remarks "We have no idea where the UK government wants to go in the next 20 days" ie before the 31 October Brexit deadline. The diplomat said EU still unclear how high getting a Brexit deal comes on PM list of priorities (eg compared to elex) /2
Clear to everyone in EU (not only Angela Merkel!) that risk of no deal is rising again. Either by 31st Oct or even after another Brexit extension. If no deal can be reached, that naturally = no deal but EU still v v v keen on agreement (not exactly news) /3
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Was Tuesday's 'leaked' Merkel conversation which appeared to signal the end of the #brexit talks actually the moment that the penny droped with @BorisJohnson that EU would not accept customs border in Ireland?

My latest 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson It appears now that Johnson has accepted there can't be a customs border in Ireland...which is a huge step, if confirmed in weekend talks.

EU always clear a deal was there to be done if customs issue could be addressed; the door was always open. /2

@BorisJohnson The question now is whether Johnson can 'pivot' through the door and emerge the other side with a deal that is saleable in London and Belfast.

No texts produced today and several clear notes of caution on EU side about speculation/3
Read 9 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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Lorraine Mulholland
@lorraineelizab6
New thread starting ready for 26 Aug @NationalDogDay! 'Irish Dogs, Myths, Saints & Other Interesting Facts!' Suggestions welcome (you might think of something I haven't)! @MagicalEurope @CruftsFans #FolkloreThursday #dogsoftwitter #NationalDogDay #InternationalDogDay! 🐶🐕🐩🐾
@NationalDogDay @MagicalEurope @CruftsFans Irish Wolfhound, symbol of #Ireland! Wolfhounds one of the oldest breeds of dogs recorded in world! Its impossible to know for sure, but skeletal remains suggest they arrived c 8,000 BC! 📷: Aella Grace, with owner Rebecca at neolithic Newgrange, Co Meath (younger; c 3200 BC)! 🐾
@NationalDogDay @MagicalEurope @CruftsFans 279 BC when Celts sacked Delphi📷 #Greece, survivors left accounts of fierce Celts & huge dogs who fought with them & at their side. No doubt Wolfhounds! PS-Ancient Greeks considered the @UNESCO Delphi the centre of the world, marked by the omphalos📷stone! #FolkloreThursday
Read 33 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
To summarise results from the @IrishTimes/MRBI poll:

Opinions in NI on #Brexit:
- overwhelmingly reject a hard Brexit; 67% want UK to stay in CU & SM
- wd vote to remain in a 2nd ref
- wd prefer checks on goods btn GB&NI than checks on @BorderIrish.

1/4
 irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Opinions in IRL on #Brexit:
- 54% satisfied with Irish govt handling of Brexit
- but almost equal split on whether should compromise on #backstop
[cf. @skynews poll]
- also split btn those saying checks on goods going to EU wd be preferable to those going across the border.

2/4
On a #BorderPoll:
- rising support for border poll (36% inc 55% of Catholics)
- see graphs below [can't assume preference re: Irish unity on basis of religious denomination]
- in the Republic: 49% say there should be a referendum on Irish unity, & 62% would vote in favour.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Irish foreign min @simoncoveney rules out any "keyhole surgery" to the Withdrawal Agreement, and says Ireland will not accept any unilateral exit clause to the Irish backstop or an expiry date.
Officials say Coveney also raised with @Jeremy_Hunt an interview he did with Gazeta Wyborcza in Poland last wk when they met on the margins of todays foreign mins mtg. Officials allege the UK is briefing against Ireland in European capitals, trying to isolate it over the backstop
Speaking to@rtenews Mr Coveney said: “The responsibility to resolve this problem…needs to lie where the problem is, which is in London, not Dublin. We wd be very foolish if we allowed the onus to solve that problem to switch away from Westminster to Dublin.
Read 5 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
A quick thread on May’s statement, for the bedtime tweeters.
Ignore the claim there are 6 key issues.

All that is worth looking at is what she says she will not do;
what she says she will do;
+ what she says might do.

TL;DR: There is no Plan B.

1/12
gov.uk/government/spe…
What she won’t do:
Revoke Art. 50 (that’s just rude);
Extend Art.50 (so No Deal remains live);
Call a 2nd referendum (she doubts it’ll win)*

* Though she doesn't completely rule out the possibility of Parliament bringing this forward.

2/12
What she might do post-Brexit:
Take lessons from her mistakes in these negotiations when it comes to negotiating the future relationship.
She’ll be more inclusive: ‘engaging’ with elected reps from NI (and [randomly] English regions), & businesses & other normal people.

3/12
Read 12 tweets

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