More on this idea after talking to senior sources in Dublin:
The 'double veto' idea was originally discussed with Theresa May, who wouldn't countenance anything which left Northern Ireland operating under a different regime to GB on Day One post-Brexit/transition period.
The 'double veto' idea was originally discussed with Theresa May, who wouldn't countenance anything which left Northern Ireland operating under a different regime to GB on Day One post-Brexit/transition period.
I'm told that Ireland has no objection to it in principle - "We've always been open to a democratic backstop" - but there's never been serious engagement on it, and few think it would fly in Westminster given current state of play (viz. @eastantrimmp already criticising it today)
Ireland's position in effect is that Northern Ireland, having opposed Brexit and supported the original Backstop, ought to be allowed to remain outside NI to remain in a customs union with the EU on Day One post-Brexit.
That's why this proposal would fall, as the PM won't buy it
That's why this proposal would fall, as the PM won't buy it
Therefore, as Ireland sees it this debate is hypothetical at best. Among hypothetical concerns are abuse of petition of concern - or what would happen if Stormont was closed - but all are moot given it would need a fundamental UK pivot to allow NI alone to stay in a customs union
One suspicion is that this idea is being pushed now by remainers/pragmatist Brexiteers within Whitehall, as an attempt to fill the policy void after EU trashed Boris Johnson's plans, but as long as No.10 itself doesn't advocate it then it's not going to work.
Ultimately it comes back to fundamental differences about what the 'default' should be in NI: Johnson's says NI is integral to UK so it should be in UK's arrangements until it opts out; Ireland reckons NI should start separated from GB sphere and opt back in if democratic consent
Which leads you to a pretty grim prognosis: as long as there's a debate about what the Day One arrangements for Northern Ireland should be, nothing is ever going to be mutually acceptable - and given the Day One question is pseudo-constitutional, Stormont will never settle on it.
