@ChrisGiles_
Could I ask a question that I know is being asked by others, on reading this by @anandMenon1 (remembering we are not economists). Did you reach your Johnson modelling of - £2250 PA per person by adding together 3/ and 4/ below :-
Income plus productivity losses?
Could I ask a question that I know is being asked by others, on reading this by @anandMenon1 (remembering we are not economists). Did you reach your Johnson modelling of - £2250 PA per person by adding together 3/ and 4/ below :-
Income plus productivity losses?
2/. @ChrisGiles_
I am not clear whether 5/ in @anandMenon1 calculations were also taken into account (migration impact).
I am not clear whether 5/ in @anandMenon1 calculations were also taken into account (migration impact).
3/. @ChrisGiles_
ALSO is this the cumulative loss over 10-15 years. I.E. it starts off smaller (how small?) and gradually expands so that in 10-15 years this is what the gap between what our income would have been with EU membership and Johnson’s model.
ALSO is this the cumulative loss over 10-15 years. I.E. it starts off smaller (how small?) and gradually expands so that in 10-15 years this is what the gap between what our income would have been with EU membership and Johnson’s model.
4/. If so, @ChrisGiles_ is there any way of modelling the shorter term impact on income?
I don’t want to mislead people by saying (“It is reasonable to forecast a £2250 (or maybe £3k )loss of income per person PA when their felt loss over - say - 3 -5 years is maybe £800 pa
I don’t want to mislead people by saying (“It is reasonable to forecast a £2250 (or maybe £3k )loss of income per person PA when their felt loss over - say - 3 -5 years is maybe £800 pa
5/. I am really REALLY sorry if the questions seem silly to you @ChrisGiles_ but because most of us are not economists, understanding and parameter you take for granted are not so obvious to us.
You are so good at explaining things I thought you might not mind!
You are so good at explaining things I thought you might not mind!
6/. In the interests of completeness for others reading this, @ChrisGiles_ I am comparing the @anandMenon1 thread and report from @UKandEU with your helpful thread from earlier this week, attached here.
7/ I add this article re the letter from manufacturers to fill out why regulatory divergence increases red tape costs and affects productivity costs too.
ft.com/content/a29b40…
ft.com/content/a29b40…
8/. I think there is an URGENT need to educate MPs who are proposing to crash on making decisions about our future that will leave us poorer, in part because embarrassment stops them asking the sort of questions I am asking @ChrisGiles_ and @anandMenon1
9/. This, in turn, @ChrisGiles_ @anandMenon1 makes it difficult to be persuasive with their constituents re what consequences they can expect in their monthly from the decisions MPs are proposing to make.
Also any explanatory leaflets have got to be better than 2016 Ref.
Also any explanatory leaflets have got to be better than 2016 Ref.
