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, 4 tweets, 3 min read
1/Computer models predict the Arctic to be free of summer sea ice by 2049 without huge greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

But, melting is more rapid than the models explain. technologyreview.com/s/609620/globa…

And new research: ice-free Arctic more likely by 2029. news.agu.org/press-release/…
2/ 'It is well known in climate science that, even if we stopped harmful emissions tomorrow, global warming would not peak for another several decades. By then, most of the Reef will be long gone.'

2°C (2029-2039): 99% of tropical reefs die

1.5°C: 70-90%
independentaustralia.net/environment/en…
3/ The Amazon Rainforest could be converted into barren desert overnight:

🔺non-linear response to rising global temperatures & increased risk of severe drought
🔺Risk of irreversible tipping point
🔺Models underestimate risk
independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…

Plus:
4/ The peer-reviewed science in this thread backs up the trend of 85% of wildlife gone by 2029.

At the current rate, 67% of wildlife will be gone by next year. The rate is 2% per year, and global warming & biosphere damage continue.independent.co.uk/environment/ex…
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More from @ClimateBen see all

Profile picture
Ben See
@ClimateBen
Things that will be gone by 2029:

1. Arctic Ice.
2. The Great Barrier Reef.
3. The Amazon Rainforest.
4. 85% of Earth's wildlife.
5. Adequate water supply.
6. Reliable food production.
7. A safe climate.
8. Human existence as we know it.

This is the real news.

Isn't it?
When the Arctic Ocean becomes ice free in the summer, global temperatures will shoot up (perhaps by 0.6°C), leading to unthinkable, global climate chaos. This looks set to happen between 2021 and 2031.

Irreversible feedbacks have already been triggered.

Climate breakdown is already severe enough to kill the Great Barrier Reef. Since 2016, coral bleaching events have killed off half of the Reef, and in the next 10 years global warming will spiral out of control.

Survival would appear to be impossible now.
Read 10 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

🔺Greenhouse gas emissions had to peak and start falling sharply by August 2019 to avoid catastrophe.

🔺Emissions are accelerating.

🔺Feedback loops are beyond our control.

🔺Billions dead by 2050s at 4°C.

🔺Your government knows this.theguardian.com/environment/20…
⚠️ From 2009 ⚠️:

❗"We've always talked about these very severe impacts only affecting future generations, but people alive today could live to see a 4°C rise."

❗"People will say it's an extreme scenario, and it is an extreme scenario, but it's also a plausible scenario."
How soon is now?

⚠️ From Sept 2009: ⚠️

'a 4C rise could come by 2060 or 2070, depending on the feedbacks. Betts said: "It's important to stress it's not a doomsday scenario, we do have time to stop it happening if we cut greenhouse gas emissions soon."'

Do we still have time?
Read 7 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Remember:

1. Feedback loops are out of control
2. Emissions are accelerating wildly
3. Trillions of animals, plants will die
4. Ecological collapse has begun
5. Climate chaos is set to kill billions
6. Fossil fuel firms must go extinct

None of this is front page news.
1. Climate breakdown is now irreversible:
telegraph.co.uk/science/2019/0…

2. Feedback loops were triggered years ago at 1°C:
news.yahoo.com/its-already-be…

3. Earth is set to be 'a largely unlivable planet' within decades.
vice.com/en_us/article/…

#EcologicalEmergency
We're in trouble.

The world marked record highs of emissions in 2018, and will do so again in 2019.

'turning the corner on emissions remains nowhere in sight.'
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Maddow Blog
@MaddowBlog
"...methane, which accounts for about 10% of U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions, is about 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide in trapping the earth’s heat, according to estimates used by the EPA."
wsj.com/articles/energ…
"A Wall Street Journal analysis recently found the U.S. oil-and-gas industry’s methane emissions alone were the equivalent to the greenhouse-gas emissions from more than 69 million cars, or about one-fourth of all cars registered in the U.S."
"
“It’s not about whether we’re doing the maximum we can or should do to deal with” climate change.

“I don’t see that there’s going to be some big climate concern here,” Ms. Idsal added.
"
Read 3 tweets
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Andreas Krüger
@drandreaskruger
#Arctic #SeaIce #ArcticSeaIce

#Arctic lowest #SeaIce cover record months:
#arctic death spiral
Read 7 tweets
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Dr Thomas Smith 🔥🌏
@DrTELS
#ArcticFires have been burning for 6+ weeks, starting earlier than usual & releasing more CO2 in June/July than any year in the 17-yr record.

A crucial question is whether these fires have ignited peat soils. This THREAD takes a closer look.



[1/7]
Peat fires are important because they burn carbon that was sequestered over 1000s of years. Unlike a grass/forest fire, emissions cannot be treated as carbon neutral. Once ignited, peat burns for a long time and is difficult to extinguish.
SOURCE: publish.csiro.au/wf/pdf/WF17084

[2/7]
Thanks to raw fire data from @m_parrington (red dots = Jun/Jul 2019 fires) and PEATMAP (green shaded areas) (sciencedirect.com/science/articl…), we can establish that this year's fires are definitely burning on known peatlands.

[3/7]
Read 8 tweets
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Dr Kim Nicholas
@KA_Nicholas
Steeling myself with a strong coffee to sit down and read major new report on avoiding dangerous #climatechange (@IPCC_CH #SR15, available here: ipcc.ch/report/sr15/). My takes to follow (1/n)
As always, the #peerreview effort by @IPCC_CH is Herculean. A couple hundred volunteer scientists read & cited 6,000+ studies to support conclusions w/ evidence. Responded to 42,001 comments in 3 rounds of review. The most robust process there is to establish scientific consensus
Now, this #SR15 report title is descriptive, but doesn't exactly roll off the tongue...
Read 59 tweets
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Adam
@Khanoisseur
We forget that agriculture is a substantial contributor to reduced air quality. 80% of ammonia emissions in US come from livestock production, including open-air anaerobic lagoons used to treat refuse from animal feeding operations. Volatilized ammonia can travel up to 300 miles.
2. Aside from ammonia and hydrogen sulfide, lagoons produce about 2.3 million metric tonnes of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, per year, with around 40% of this coming from swine lagoons. 15% of all methane emissions come from livestock manure.
3. Methane from livestock accounts for ~40% of all greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. That's more than synthetic fertilizer or deforestation. GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry & fishing have doubled over 50 years, could go up by 30% by 2050.npr.org/sections/thesa…
Read 3 tweets
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InsideClimate News
@insideclimate
1/ Nuiqsut is the only town in Alaska's prolific North Slope oil region, which is poised for another drilling boom.

The community has long been concerned about industry air pollution. There is reason to be anxious.

@shankman reports from the #Arctic: insideclimatenews.org/news/01082018/…
2/ "I was really stunned when I was up there in July [2017] to hear the fears that are so pervasive in the community that it even impacts the teenagers," said Barbara Trost of @alaskaDEC.
3/ More than three-quarters of Nuiqsut residents still live a traditional subsistence life, off the fish they catch, the whales they harvest and the caribou they hunt.

And they've found themselves on the frontlines of a modern crisis.
Read 17 tweets

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