, 11 tweets, 3 min read
Here are some vague parameters on the Irish Sea border... you have to go to the Impact Assessment of the Bill....

- “Ongoing costs” of Goods trade customs administration “between GB & NI” (ie both ways - including the Exit Summary Declarations)
“West - East”
Ie for N. Ireland goods “exports” to Great Britain - “The Protocol would result in additional costs” due to “practical information needed to be provided” — not required in no deal. “Not been possible” to calculate due to data limitations...
This is because EU Customs law will apply (Annex 2 Protocol contains 300 such regulations, directives from customs to safety to car regs etc) to Northern Ireland, and therefore EU’s legal requirement for an Exit Summary Declaration will be maintained...
“East-West” -ie GB- NI trade
- Entry Summary Declarations for Customs which cost £15 to £56 elsewhere say HMRC calms
- tariffs paid on goods “at risk of entering EU” as determined by “Joint committee” criteria
East-West - ie trade from GB-NI
All agrifood goods to enter NI via EU law Border Inspection Post or DPEs
Additional documentation, notification, checks
“Export Health Certificates” and “Phyosanitary certificates” “additional admin cost”... €55 min fee “higher storage costs”
Extra checks on Irish Sea trade “exports” within UK from GB to NI: - supply change changes, “disruptive consequences” for perishables, and further delays at Eu law Border Inspection Posts due to “lab tests”
NB - some of these checks already occur on Eg. live animal exports from GB-NI of cattle, inspected off ferry at Larne
Other major call in the “Impact Assessment” Cost-Benefit analysis... of Withdrawal Agreement

£32.8 billion “Brexit Bill” financial settlement is not a quantified cost because “not possible” to quantify a baseline.

Likewise £10bn in avoided budget payments.
In general terms the baseline scenario is No Deal. Ie the impact assessment does not quantify the impact of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill versus the current situation of EU membership, it calculates against No Deal counterfactual...
PM says in Commons that the NI arrangements are "transitory" as they will after 4 years be subject to consent of NI. Lady Hermon, MP, says "do not take people of NI for fools - we are not fools" re the consent process...
Melanie Onn - who had said she would back the Brexit deal stands up to tell PM of a "fundamental issue of trust in his word" and specifically on workers rights - asks for date, PM says she shall have a date.
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