Thread by @timd_IFG

Govt is expected to lose the #meaningfulvote tomorrow – but what are MPs' objections to the actual deal? A few thoughts below on four main criticisms of the deal – which show MPs still don't understand (willfully or otherwise) what #Brexit really means

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1: “The backstop cedes part of the UK”. No, it doesn’t. NI’s status will only change under the terms agreed in the 1998 Belfast Agreement – no possibility of an accidental unification of Ireland. Both sides reiterated this in letters today

gov.uk/government/pub…

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1 cont’d: And the UK-wide customs territory is a *win* for the UK – UK asked for it and EU clearly unhappy with it. Ensures no need for customs checks between GB and NI

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1 cont’d: Brexiteers argue the backstop is unnecessary for an open border – but haven’t got any other concrete proposals. The expert who wrote Smart Borders 2.0 says that tech alone isn’t enough - you need "full trust", which isn't always there...

larskarlsson.com/?p=5298

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1 cont'd: Both sides also clear in today's letters that they don't want to use the backstop and commit to quick progress on the future relationship to avoid needing it (whether they can actually achieve that is another question)

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2: “The UK is paying £39bn for nothing”. The financial settlement is not a down payment on the future relationship, it’s settling debts the UK has incurred over the last 40 years of membership and covering the UK’s ongoing payments during the transition

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2 cont’d: Leaving an agreement without paying your debts is not a good look as you seek new deals around the world.

And no payment = no transition.

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3: “The transition means the UK will be a vassal of the EU”. Yes, the UK will have to follow EU rules during the transition, with no say on them. But business (and the official Opposition) have called for a transition to maximise certainty

Eg: cbi.org.uk/insight-and-an…

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3 cont’d: No transition means hugely disruptive changes in just over 10 weeks’ time. With no certainty on the future relationship, a transition is 100% necessary.

And remember the transition is part of the deal - with no deal, there is no transition!

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4: “There is no certainty on the future relationship”. No, there isn’t – the political declaration is vague and can mean whatever you want it to.

This has always been the case: we’ve known since 2016 we’d be heading for a blind Brexit:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/weve-alwa…

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So, if MPs vote down the deal, what do they want to change? The PM may seek changes to the backstop – but its core objective will not change.

The choice will still be between (a version of) this deal, no deal and no Brexit – as the Govt has argued

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Vote against the deal if you want no Brexit, or a #nodeal crash out. But if you want the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, this deal does that.

Pretending there is some magically different deal, or more certainty on the future, is not realistic at this stage

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PS - remember this is only the beginning of the end, this is just us leaving... We will go through all this fun 100 times over when it comes to agreeing what the UK *actually* wants from the future relationship, and getting Parliament to sign up to it...

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