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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Crucial point some people may have missed in the flurry of talk about a transition period: On Brexit Day (currently 31 October 2019) Article 50 goes away, and with it any chance of revoking and remaining in the EU. We will be OUT. Transition only deadens the pain a while.
As a consequence, the end of the transition period is another no deal cliff edge. But this time one we don't have the option of revoking Article 50 to avoid! Only way to avoid going over post-transition cliff edge is to agree our future relationship with the EU during transition.
Now, the EU will know that. They will know they have us over a barrel, weaker than any country has ever been before. Because the end of transition will be coming up FAST. So we will need a deal - any deal - to avoid it. Will we get a great deal from them? What do you think...
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
How hot will tempers flare at #PMQs ? It will be interesting to see if Boris Johnson is conciliatory or combative. His hair seems to be its usual blond, so it looks like he didn't "dye in a ditch" over extending Brexit.
Rupa Huq: "The PM has, we all know, a long list of shortcomings. So could he do something about one he does have control over, and get rid of Dominic Cummings". Half-decent pun. #PMQs
Patrick McLoughlin congratulates the PM for "getting a Brexit deal through this House" but of course it's only moved past second reading. A long road still to go, and it may get voted down or amended beyond recognition before it *actually* becomes law. #PMQs
Read 19 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
- Withdrawal Act: legally binding, international law, can't be unilaterally changed by the UK
- Political Declaration: not legally binding, can't be unilaterally changed by the UK
- EU (Withdrawal Act) Bill [WAB]: legally binding, domestic law, can be changed by the UK in future.
Confusing, isn't it? Basically anything negotiated *with the EU* can't be modified without their consent.

Anything that relates only to implementing things negotiated with the EU in domestic law is under our control (in *theory* we could implement them badly or not at all).
Indeed, we could (again in theory) end up with UK domestic law at odds with what we'd agreed with the EU. But then we'd be in breach of an international treaty, which is *bad*.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
MPs have to wade through 6 documents & 400+ pages when considering the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill or "WAB". The WAB is as messy as a hairball. It references dozens of other Acts, making it exceptionally hard to understand. And there's tonnes of horrible stuff buried in it...
Time to do some digging.

Gotcha 1: the transition period runs until December 2020. It can only be extended once, to either Dec 2021 or Dec 2022. But the Government gets to decide whether to extend it and for how. Parliament can only approve or turn down the extension.
But that means that if the Government decided not to ask for an extension by the deadline to do so, we crash out on no deal at the end of December 2020. We would only have until then to finalise our future relationship with the EU to avoid a no deal fate.
Read 11 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Brexit secretary Steve Barclay gave talk in Madrid this morning warning Spaniards of a threat to Spanish sherry, manchego cheese and more in case of no deal #Brexit He said EU had to be less rigid and more creative in finding a deal with Boris Johnson’s gov. /1
The Brexit Secretary pointed to the transition period that would follow a deal and says that was a time to work out alternatives to the backstop BUT EU has said over and again it won’t sign a deal unless it’s satisfied an agreed alternative to the backstop is already on paper /2
Can’t see EU moving from that position bc if it does that will be falling to comply with its own arguament on why backstop/border backup is necessary: protect EU member Ireland and single market and peace process incl all Ireland economy + N/S co-op /3
Read 4 tweets
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 125 tweets
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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
(1 of 7) Tidbits on Brexit: out of the frying pan, into the fire. EU leaders have approved the text of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration. The latter is non-binding and outlines both sides’ aspirations for the long-term relationship.
(2 of 7) The former sets the terms of the transition period between Brexit day in March 2019 and the end of 2020, at which point there will be a deal on the future relationship, a one- or two-year extension of the transition period, or the dreaded backstop will kick in.
(3 of 7) The approval process was not without drama. The main obstacle to unanimous support had been Gibraltar.
Read 7 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ A quick, rough thread on what's in the Transition Guidelines, and what the text can mean. The PDF of the guidelines is here: consilium.europa.eu/media/32504/xt…
2/ "In particular, the provisions of the Citizens' rights part of the
withdrawal agreement should apply as from the end of the transition period" page 4. De facto #Brexit date for FoM is hence end 2020.
3/ Para 13. "Notwithstanding paragraph 18 of these negotiating directives, the Union acquis should apply to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a Member State." Para 18 is about institutions, hence everything else applies.
Read 15 tweets

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