Out now: My new research paper with @NeilQuilliam1 for @CH_MENAP on Trump’s campaign of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran, and the potential for future negotiations. It draws on 75 off-the-record interviews we conducted with policymakers in 10 countries. chathamhouse.org/publication/ge… 1
Our paper finds that Trump's maximum-pressure strategy towards Iran has produced greater regional instability and anxiety among the US’s regional partners - respondents we interviewed generally did not foresee a ‘grand bargain’ on Iran as a viable outcome of current US strategy.2 
Trump’s unilateral approach has created many divisions with Europe over Iran policy. Respondents told us that negotiations, above all, should be multilateral in orientation and they believe a JCPOA+ is likely to be the most successful scenario to securing a new Iran deal. 3
A JCPOA+ would see improvements to the nuclear deal by way of sunset extensions, improved IAEA monitoring and access and codification of Iran's already accepted range limit of 2000km. 4
Iran should be granted incremental sanctions relief & provided with qualified access to the US financial system. The US would be highly unlikely to unwind existing sanctions to secure a smaller deal. A designated trade mechanism could facilitate international transactions. 5
Respondents indicated that regional issues would not be included in the JCPOA+ scenario because linking a deal to resolution of regional issues cannot be delivered by Iran alone – risks halting progress on the nuclear file. 6
The EU should lead a multilateral strategy closely resembling the Madrid Conference & peace process to create a wider regional security framework that could include commitments to non-aggression and non-interference by regional actors. All regional actors should be included.7
Regional actors including Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE should acknowledge that maximum pressure has had little effect. Containment and sanctions strategy should be coupled with policies that include engagement, confidence-building and discussions on regional security issues.8
Over 70% of interviewees told us they consider the result of the 2020 US election as a critical factor determining whether future negotiations are possible.9
The release of dual nationals detained in Iran, alongside a commitment to halt such detentions, must be obtained from Tehran. This step would not only improve trust, but also would send important signals to strengthen Iran’s business ties with the international community. 10
You can explore more of the Iran deal scenario mapping that we did in this interactive map which provides more detailed access to the data, prospective scenarios and the individual country positions on nuclear, ballistic missile and regional solutions. chathamhouse.org/publication/ge… 11
