Germany's Die Welt newspaper sums up EU thoughts on #Brexit this morning with the headline: "The only thing that is clear is that Brexit is not happening on 31 October" welt.de/politik/auslan… /1
EU leaders must now agree on whether to grant the UK another Brexit extension and if so: how long for. Don't forget every country has a veto on this. But after speaking extensively to EU diplomats and politicians, the consensus EU-side seems to be to say yes /2
The EU's decision is expected by the end of the week. You can expect a lot of EU grumbling beforehand. France's Europe Minister was unsurprisingly (France has settled into role of "Brexit Bad Cop") one of first to speak on the record last night. She noted that.. /3
Time alone wouldnt solve the UKs #Brexit conundrum and she said the EU would want to hear UKs justification for another extension -ie what will be done with the time. As things stand, it seems likely the EU will grant the 3 month extension "requested" by the PM in a letter /4
EU leaders are fully aware PM's hand was forced by parliament to request a 3 month extension. Brussels does not want to get embroiled in heated UK debate so it seems most likely it will say yes to that UK 3 month request rather than 'impose' their own 'EU extension' /5
But whatever the time length of the extension granted, this will be another 'flextension'. This means the delay can end earlier if and when parliament ratifies the new Brexit deal /6
NB European parliament still has power to veto Brexit bill after that. It is waiting to ratify the deal until that process has been completed in Westminster. V unlikely the deal will fall EU-side though. EU negotiators have been careful to keep MEPs in the loop. In fact .. /7
The loudest opponents in the European parliament to the new #Brexit deal are probably UK MEPs: Nigel Farage and his vocal Brexit party on the one side and Liberal Democrat MEPs (whose numbers were boosted in the recent European elections) on the other /8
A sure sign that there’s disagreement amongst EU leaders about the extension will be if they announce an emergency #Brexit summit here in Brussels /9
The EU preference is to avoid ‘wasting’ any more time if busy EU leaders on Brexit-only summits. If possible Beussels will try and get their consent for an extension in writing rather than in person BUT /10
If there are rifts between EU leaders on extension length, they’ll come face to face to argue it out.. /11
In the lightest of pencil, an emergency #Brexit summit has been pencilled in (only if deemed absolutely necessary) for next Monday.. EU leaders would attend as willingly as Boris Johnson sent his formal letter requesting the extension in the first place /12
