To GE or not to GE, that is the question. Thread. 1/
It is the question facing Johnson, and the question facing Corbyn and the opposition. This thread looks at the question from the Labour party's perspective. 2/
Labour have been calling for a GE, to allow the people to place their verdict on PM Johnson for months. But, in the last weeks, they have rowed back. There are good reasons for this. 3/
They wanted to ensure that no deal (on Oct 31) was taken off the table. They now want an extension to be granted. By the end of tomorrow, in all likelihood, it will be. 4/
What further reasons are there for delay? There are a range of arguments canvassed. They want Johnson to fail to steer his WAB through the HoC. They want to fracture the latest outbreak of Tory unity. 5/
The end goal is unclear. Would it be to try to ensure that Johnson's deal passes, but, eg, with a CU commitment in the WAB; or with a referendum condition? Or would it be to call for a GE 'soon', once Johnson's failures become more manifest? 6/
The risks are huge. The amendments they support may fall. Tory unity may be preserved. The deal may pass through the HoC unscathed, or pretty much unscathed. 7/
Alternatively, they may get some amendments through the House. What then? Johnson may accept them, and deliver a 'softer' Brexit. Or he may accept them fully intending to row back in the aftermath of a GE win. Or he may reject them, and we will be where we are now. 8/
Of course, the suspicion of many is that Labour is hesitating because the polls suggest that they may not fare well in the GE; and that a GE would deliver Johnson a majority (which would enable him to pursue his Brexit, unhindered by the 'remainer Parliament'). 9/
The response to that is not to run from a GE, but to ensure that the Party has a strong pitch to make, which can attract voters. Given the FPTP system, cooperation with like minded parties is essential. 10/
If the opposition parties can find a way to unite against Johnson, the GE is there to be won. Lab, LDs, Nats, Greens need to try to agree a common strategy which can appeal to voters. 11/
My tentative suggestion is that they should accept that Johnson has now defined Brexit. Brexit is the WA and the WAB, with all their problems and contradictions. It is not a good Brexit. It is a Brexit they can all oppose. 12/
The argument is set out here. An election in which Johnson pledged to deliver his Brexit, and in which a united opposition was pledging to reject it would be... interesting, and would allow the Brexit debate, finally, to move forward. 13/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10…
The alternative is yet more delay; for which the opposition will shoulder much of the blame. And a very strong likelihood that Brexit will happen without a 'democratic event'. 14/14
