Good morning! Trust you are well 😀 Today, I will give the full story of WHY I SEE BOTTOM IN GOLD ~800-890 from an EW-perspective - and the LIKELY PATH getting there! Remember - trolls and haters will be blocked! Use my input for whatever you like 👍 Stay tuned for #HZupdates
All price developments have MAIN direction and CORRECTIONS (Big surprise - I know😄) in FRACTAL STRUCTURE. So - zooming in/out - you will see the same kind of pattern emerge. Observe very LT charts and it becomes obvious. #HZupdates 
The FRACTAL structure appears as we as individuals go through the same WAVE of EMOTIONS from LT-scale - down to very ST-scale. MULTIPLY these individual emotional swings by BILLIONS (of transactions) - and you will see patterns emerge. THIS IS THE BASIS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ELLIOT WAVE THEORY gives us a view of how these INDIVIDUAL EMOTIONAL SWINGS (multiplied by the billions) plays out. MAIN Directions have certain characteristics - and same for CORRECTIONAL MOVES! Very distinct if read correctly #HZupdates
Elliott Wave Theory looks like this for MOTIVE (Main Direction) and CORRECTIVE Phases. Motive Phase has 5 waves - Corrective 3 Phases.
Let me just pause and say, that ALL RELIABLE EW-COUNTS should be based on VERY LT-perspective with CROSS-MARKET ALIGNMENT! I give NOTHING for ad hoc counts based on 1 hour chart taken out of who-knows which context!! The Cross-Market, very LT approach is what I have in my model!
Now we turn towards #Gold and take a look at the very LT-view. Few will argue, that we had a MAIN DIRECTIONAL move up to top in 2011 - and from then on a CORRECTIONAL move. Key Question is.... was 2015 the BOTTOM of CORRECTIONAL MOVE? #HZupdates
To answer that question, we dive 1 level in on the FRACTAL STRUCTURE and observe the Correctional move which we can agree started in 2011 - and majority of investors think ended in 2015 #HZupdates
We remember from EW-Theory, that CORRECTIONAL MOVES are 3 wave corrections - i.e. we need to identify 3 waves in the LT-chart - with the distinct characteristics of A, B and C respectively. Where are A, B and C in the CORRECTION move? #HZupdates
Looking at the LT-perspective, this is what I get from the EW-count. Wave 2 is a FLAT CORRECTION, Wave 4 is a TRIANGLE. Note! Triangles only exist in B-waves or wave 4 - and this triangle is very clear! #HZupdates
So - we have a clear 5-wave count for #Gold's price development since 2011-2015. This is what we expect of a Wave A (in HIGHER FRACTAL LEVEL) in a ZIGZAG-correctional move. We are in other words... at this point (A) in the theoretical EW-structure #HZupdates
Following point A we expect wave B to develop. Wave B can take shape of either TRIANGLE(!) or ZIGZAG. NOTE! I MISTAKENLY for some time (1 yr ago until Spring 2019) thought we saw a triangle developing. A MISTAKE - but it does not at all invalidate structure!! #HZupdates
Price development in #Gold since 2015 looks like this. It has all the characteristics of a CORRECTIONAL structure! Clearly not a triangle - but apparently a DOUBLE ZIGZAG structure - here denominated as W-X-Y #HZupdates
Characteristics of a any ZigZag-structure is, that it often(!) retraces 61.8% of the previous decline, which is at ~1586. The development since 2018-low suggests another Double ZigZag - which pot. could look like this (small wxy-letters). #HZupdates
Zooming out on the entire structure for the Correctional move since 2015, we get this. Wave B should be in within coming months - before wave C takes #Gold much lower. Characteristics for wave C is that it is often is either 100% or 61.8% of wave A #HZupdates
Depending on where we see Wave B top, we get a pot. bottom area ~800-890 (if 61.8%) OR ~700 USD. Often wave C will be rather impulsive (develop quickly) - which gives a trend line "touch" in 800-890 area. Note MAJOR resistance area from 2011-13 #HZupdates
We also observe, that a pot. wave C at either 800-890 OR 700 USD is in an area with great demand/support from 2008-09. The entire structure from 2011-2020 - or later(?) is MAJOR BULL FLAG. But - first BEAR FLAG from 2011-19 needs to play out!! #HZupdates
Summarizing! #Gold is in a MAJOR Correctional Move from 2011. Bottom in 2015 was bottom of A - and we are now in the correctional wave B of the major correction. Wave C still needs to play out - bringing Gold to either 800-890 or pot. 700 before LT-bottom #HZupdates
Shorter term - we will still see higher high in #Gold before top B is in - but we may well see price develop further in Bull flag in the shortest time frame. I expect min. 1590 - pot. higher before top (spike?) #HZupdates
Wave B (according to EW) fools investors on to the wrong side of market and sentiment (CoT and Twitter sentiment) SOARS - while volume stays LOW (see chart below!). This is exactly what we are observing currently! #HZupdates
As I said, you may use my input for whatever you like🙂My #Gold model is aligned and calibrated with my LT-outlook and models for EURUSD, DXY, Copper, AUDUSD, etc. #HZupdates
That is all for now in this thread on EW-perspective and outlook on #Gold. I may return later this weekend with some other market perspectives in #HZupdates. All best for now! 👍😀
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TYPO: But - first BEAR FLAG from 2015-19(?) needs to play out! NOT 2011-2019 as I mistakenly wrote!
