Places that I love are in flames today, with massive evacuation orders for the surroundings.
Be careful, California kin. Bail early if you can & you’re under warning; this is a hard area to evacuate quickly. Check on your neighbours. Remember your pets.
Be careful, California kin. Bail early if you can & you’re under warning; this is a hard area to evacuate quickly. Check on your neighbours. Remember your pets.
Quick’n’dirty go bag tip:
What do you need to get through 24hrs?
What’s most essential to rebuild?
If you have time:
What will keep you calm while waiting?
You know how notoriously prepared parents of infants are with diaper bags? You want that for you.
What do you need to get through 24hrs?
What’s most essential to rebuild?
If you have time:
What will keep you calm while waiting?
You know how notoriously prepared parents of infants are with diaper bags? You want that for you.
Evacuating all the way to the coast is very dark but sound logic.
if the Kincade fire jumps the Russian River, it‘s into an area with a lot of dense trees that hasn’t burned in a long time. It’s scant transport routes that channel in to exposed valleys.
if the Kincade fire jumps the Russian River, it‘s into an area with a lot of dense trees that hasn’t burned in a long time. It’s scant transport routes that channel in to exposed valleys.
For size comparison, the Kincade fire is roughly the same size as DisneyWorld (like, ALL of it, including all 6 parks, 36 hotels, golf courses, & conservation lands). It’s 2x the size of Manhattan.
And it’s what, 10% contained?
With 50,000 people under evac orders?
This is bad.
And it’s what, 10% contained?
With 50,000 people under evac orders?
This is bad.
You’ll notice I’m not using the hashtags for the Kincade fire.
If you’re not impacted or an official source of information, please stay off disaster hashtags.
Well-meaning efforts to offer support, share outdated info, or ask questions are noise that buries vital updates.
If you’re not impacted or an official source of information, please stay off disaster hashtags.
Well-meaning efforts to offer support, share outdated info, or ask questions are noise that buries vital updates.
If you’re nearby and under warning or just feeling uneasy: you can evacuate early.
This can escalate so fast, reception is so spotty, and this area has so few roads. Early voluntary evacuation means less chance of traffic jams. Go spend the weekend visiting friends in the city.
This can escalate so fast, reception is so spotty, and this area has so few roads. Early voluntary evacuation means less chance of traffic jams. Go spend the weekend visiting friends in the city.
Maps for context:
1. Weather warnings
California’s east-west geography (desert, mountain, valley, mountain, ocean) sets up gusty, hot, dry winds.
It’s a normal California weather pattern & dangerous af.
📷 LA Times
1. Weather warnings
California’s east-west geography (desert, mountain, valley, mountain, ocean) sets up gusty, hot, dry winds.
It’s a normal California weather pattern & dangerous af.
📷 LA Times
2. Regional fire history
The whole west coast gets nasty fires, although they’re getting more intense with prolonged drought. Anywhere that just burned is less likely to burn again soon.
Most of this region hasn’t had bad fires in decades.
The whole west coast gets nasty fires, although they’re getting more intense with prolonged drought. Anywhere that just burned is less likely to burn again soon.
Most of this region hasn’t had bad fires in decades.
3. Transportation routes
Much of coastal NorCal has 2 north-south routes, Hwy 1 (beautiful, tiny, curvy, slow) & Hwy 101 (small but multilane straightish freeway). East-west is scarce small scenic windy roads.
Many of these towns have one road north & one south. That’s it.
Much of coastal NorCal has 2 north-south routes, Hwy 1 (beautiful, tiny, curvy, slow) & Hwy 101 (small but multilane straightish freeway). East-west is scarce small scenic windy roads.
Many of these towns have one road north & one south. That’s it.
You’d think rivers & highways would be decent fire breaks, but this is a very non-ideal situation.
Gusty winds carry embers.
Vegetation is dry from summer & prolonged drought.
Hot, dry winds fan sparks into flames.
I hope Kincade doesn’t jump.
But it could.
Gusty winds carry embers.
Vegetation is dry from summer & prolonged drought.
Hot, dry winds fan sparks into flames.
I hope Kincade doesn’t jump.
But it could.
The fire keeps growing, with mandatory evacuation zones & warning zones expanded to match.
This is a monster of a fire.
Public safety power shutdowns mean comms are going to get even more challenging. If you’re ANYWHERE nearby, either gtfo or make a plan to monitor status.
This is a monster of a fire.
Public safety power shutdowns mean comms are going to get even more challenging. If you’re ANYWHERE nearby, either gtfo or make a plan to monitor status.
I grew up in Marin & Sonoma. These are my back roads, with many of my friends still in these hills. Or in the evac traffic jams. Or sheltering evacuees tonight.
Keep your compassion front & center. Everyone makes the best choices they can within their context.
Keep your compassion front & center. Everyone makes the best choices they can within their context.
holy fucking shit, evac orders just started rolling out in Santa Rosa.
Note: it’s warnings not orders so far. Think of it like being on standby, packed & ready to go.
But it’s almost 11pm.
How good are your alert settings? How much faith do you have in that they’re aggressive enough to wake you up?
& then the traffic of everyone leaving together.
But it’s almost 11pm.
How good are your alert settings? How much faith do you have in that they’re aggressive enough to wake you up?
& then the traffic of everyone leaving together.
Jargon note:
Bay Area Diablo winds & SoCal Santa Ana winds are similar yet distinct.
Both are katabatic winds that dry out, heat up, & pick up speed down the mountains to the coast. Diablos more often have hydraulic jumps, fastest on peaks & lees
Bay Area Diablo winds & SoCal Santa Ana winds are similar yet distinct.
Both are katabatic winds that dry out, heat up, & pick up speed down the mountains to the coast. Diablos more often have hydraulic jumps, fastest on peaks & lees
The story of Kincade fire is about evacuation: timing, compliance, effectiveness.
The winds kicked up (as anticipated) overnight. Planned power outages are putting communications on a countdown clock before cell tower backup batteries die.
Thank
The winds kicked up (as anticipated) overnight. Planned power outages are putting communications on a countdown clock before cell tower backup batteries die.
Thank
This morning, Glencove Fire in Vallejo burned to the water, jumping both I-80 and the Carquinez Strait.
Vallejo is northeast Bay Area; I-80 the primary high-volume industrial route.
(Kincade fire evacs are into Bodega Bay & Santa Rosa at the north of this map.)
Vallejo is northeast Bay Area; I-80 the primary high-volume industrial route.
(Kincade fire evacs are into Bodega Bay & Santa Rosa at the north of this map.)
Winds are gusting 20-50mph all over the Bay Area, with some up to 90mph. And it’s going to be like that all day.
Fires climb hills. Diablos usually gust hardest on peaks & lee sides. Valley-jumps are on today’s “pls no” list of things I don’t want to see.
Fires climb hills. Diablos usually gust hardest on peaks & lee sides. Valley-jumps are on today’s “pls no” list of things I don’t want to see.
Containment is going to be an absolute beast as long as the winds blow.
For both Kincade & Glencove, firefighters will be focused more on protecting where they can (while police are running evacs). I’ll be in awe if containment percentage ticks up today.
For both Kincade & Glencove, firefighters will be focused more on protecting where they can (while police are running evacs). I’ll be in awe if containment percentage ticks up today.
Smoke is stressful & a health hazard. Limit time outdoors.
@AIRNow is having tech glitches. Latest: baaqmd.gov/about-air-qual…
Beware automated interpretation: Ash particles are mistriggering rain sensors at the airport closest to Kincade. More limitations: physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.…
@AIRNow is having tech glitches. Latest: baaqmd.gov/about-air-qual…
Beware automated interpretation: Ash particles are mistriggering rain sensors at the airport closest to Kincade. More limitations: physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.…
Airdrops in Diablo winds are HARD.
Flying in high winds is risky. With 100mph gusts, it takes a lot of skill & focus.
Dropping water or retardant is tricky when wind can blow off target & heat can vaporize payload.
Flying in high winds is risky. With 100mph gusts, it takes a lot of skill & focus.
Dropping water or retardant is tricky when wind can blow off target & heat can vaporize payload.
In the US, even mandatory evacuation orders are voluntary.
Not everyone has the ability or resources to evac, but if you can please do. Help your neighbours get out. With this few roads, leaving last-minute is hard.
Staying behind puts you & firefighters in danger.
Not everyone has the ability or resources to evac, but if you can please do. Help your neighbours get out. With this few roads, leaving last-minute is hard.
Staying behind puts you & firefighters in danger.
Feeling anxious?
Things you can do now that are fast & free:
1. Find & follow your disaster officials & local news. @calfirelnu are key this weekend.
2. Update your emergency info with an out-of-area contact to help coordinate communication.
3. Opt in to local emergency alerts.
Things you can do now that are fast & free:
1. Find & follow your disaster officials & local news. @calfirelnu are key this weekend.
2. Update your emergency info with an out-of-area contact to help coordinate communication.
3. Opt in to local emergency alerts.
You’re all going to learn your Bay Area highway maps.
Lafayette fire was quickly contained, but straddles Hwy 24. It’s urban with surface street work-arounds, but is the east-west connector from 680 into the city (580, 880, I-80 (Glencove/Vallejo fire))
Lafayette fire was quickly contained, but straddles Hwy 24. It’s urban with surface street work-arounds, but is the east-west connector from 680 into the city (580, 880, I-80 (Glencove/Vallejo fire))
Rural fires (Kincade) are nasty for limited evac options.
Interface fires (Glencove/Vallejo) are nasty for interjurisdictional coordination.
Urban fires (Lafayette) are nasty for high density of lives & assets at risk.
All of this is a nightmare of whack-a-mole firefighting.
Interface fires (Glencove/Vallejo) are nasty for interjurisdictional coordination.
Urban fires (Lafayette) are nasty for high density of lives & assets at risk.
All of this is a nightmare of whack-a-mole firefighting.
Your faint silver lining:
Sonoma’s experience with several brutally bad fires in recent years is paying off.
They’ve dumped resources into better communication (including GIS). Residents (especially 2017 Tubbs fire survivors) are more prepared & take evacuation seriously.
Sonoma’s experience with several brutally bad fires in recent years is paying off.
They’ve dumped resources into better communication (including GIS). Residents (especially 2017 Tubbs fire survivors) are more prepared & take evacuation seriously.
Uncertainty provokes anxiety.
A huge problem with Public Safety Blackouts is the shit-poor communication. They gave little advanced warning the first rollout (even to essential services like hospitals & tunnels). Schedules & maps aren’t reliably accurate or updated.
A huge problem with Public Safety Blackouts is the shit-poor communication. They gave little advanced warning the first rollout (even to essential services like hospitals & tunnels). Schedules & maps aren’t reliably accurate or updated.
Cutting off all power with insufficient notice for vital services to purchase and install generators is creating fully-anticipatable secondary impacts.
No power to pumping stations means limited stored water supply.
That’s being drained to fight fires.
thestate.com/news/business/…
No power to pumping stations means limited stored water supply.
That’s being drained to fight fires.
thestate.com/news/business/…
PG&E is limiting its liability with the Public Safety Shutoffs.
But that’s looking at only a tiny portion of the risk picture. It doesn’t balance how lack of power increases other risks and costs.
Like running out of water to fight fires. ffs
But that’s looking at only a tiny portion of the risk picture. It doesn’t balance how lack of power increases other risks and costs.
Like running out of water to fight fires. ffs
With ~2 million people without power, those most impacted are least likely to be online.
With the erosion of local news, reporting resources are stretched extremely thin. Tracking what’s happening is tough.
With the erosion of local news, reporting resources are stretched extremely thin. Tracking what’s happening is tough.
Kincade more than doubled in size today. It’s now very nearly the size of Manhattan & Brooklyn combined and certainly will be by morning.
This is why we keep talking about red flag weather & the Diablo winds.
This is why we keep talking about red flag weather & the Diablo winds.
Best practices for pics:
Don’t drop photos of death into timelines without warning. Make them click-through links.
Evaluate if you’re sharing something of value or boosting disaster porn that exploits pain.
Warm-fuzzies: These ducks survived.
Don’t drop photos of death into timelines without warning. Make them click-through links.
Evaluate if you’re sharing something of value or boosting disaster porn that exploits pain.
Warm-fuzzies: These ducks survived.
Winds are dying down today, but conditions still suck and the next round of wind warnings are on deck for Thursday.
This is going to stay bad until the rains come. And then we’ll get landslides on freshly-burnt slopes.
This is going to stay bad until the rains come. And then we’ll get landslides on freshly-burnt slopes.
As the winds drop and stop charging for the ocean, smoke will thicken.
Call in any new fires (please no more), but by default expect more smoke, worse air quality, & poorer visibility this afternoon.
Call in any new fires (please no more), but by default expect more smoke, worse air quality, & poorer visibility this afternoon.
PG&E has repeatedly earned its felony status, and has been found guilty of safety violations back to at least 1954.
Just because they claim no responsibility for the impacts of their shutdowns doesn’t mean it’s true.
Just because they claim no responsibility for the impacts of their shutdowns doesn’t mean it’s true.
We’re getting deep enough into the power outages that generators are going to start running out of fuel.
And gas stations need power to operate.
Paying attention to where in the Bay Area still has power makes it clear that politics have even more influence than wind.
And gas stations need power to operate.
Paying attention to where in the Bay Area still has power makes it clear that politics have even more influence than wind.
People outside California:
The blackouts are full-grid, not prioritized.
Hospitals, tunnels, gas stations, grocery stores, pumping stations, cell towers, retirement homes: they’re on generators with limited service or they’re dark.
Yes, this has huge public safety implications.
The blackouts are full-grid, not prioritized.
Hospitals, tunnels, gas stations, grocery stores, pumping stations, cell towers, retirement homes: they’re on generators with limited service or they’re dark.
Yes, this has huge public safety implications.
PG&E is doing a ludicrously bad job with communications.
They didn’t consult or inform re: shutdown plans until the first one, so services scrambled to install & upgrade generators all month.
Their maps are inaccurate.
Schedule & duration are inaccurate.
They didn’t consult or inform re: shutdown plans until the first one, so services scrambled to install & upgrade generators all month.
Their maps are inaccurate.
Schedule & duration are inaccurate.
Standard practice for personal preparedness is to be set for 72 hours.
PG&E is talking about extending blackouts for a week.
After they started.
When impacted people have limited communications to get updates, and can’t go get more food, water, medication, or fuel.
PG&E is talking about extending blackouts for a week.
After they started.
When impacted people have limited communications to get updates, and can’t go get more food, water, medication, or fuel.
With no power, most people can’t work.
Personal preparedness is expensive. Food waste, burning fuel driving around to charge cellphones, prescription advances not covered by insurance, batteries...
All while unexpectedly out of work.
Indefinitely.
How deep are your savings?
Personal preparedness is expensive. Food waste, burning fuel driving around to charge cellphones, prescription advances not covered by insurance, batteries...
All while unexpectedly out of work.
Indefinitely.
How deep are your savings?
For scale:
Now at 66,231 acres, Kincade fire is roughly the size of:
Reading, PA
Anchorage, AK
Eugene, OR
Green Bay, WI
Tri-Cities, WA
Waco, TX
Springfield, IL
Topeka, KS
Tuscaloosa, AL
Portsmouth, NH
It’s a bit smaller than Trenton, NJ for now.
Now at 66,231 acres, Kincade fire is roughly the size of:
Reading, PA
Anchorage, AK
Eugene, OR
Green Bay, WI
Tri-Cities, WA
Waco, TX
Springfield, IL
Topeka, KS
Tuscaloosa, AL
Portsmouth, NH
It’s a bit smaller than Trenton, NJ for now.
Some locations briefly got power tonight before going dark for the rest of the week. But flicking the power on & off doesn’t refuel generators.
And those closest to the Kincade fire are least likely to still have cell service to get updates.
And those closest to the Kincade fire are least likely to still have cell service to get updates.
Oh! I never gave you cell tower stats.
Most North American cell towers have battery backups that run 2-4 hours depending on call volume. Big players upgrade to generators in critical locations: Sprint (8hrs), Verizon (72hrs), AT&T (120hrs).
Details: sfchronicle.com/business/artic…
Most North American cell towers have battery backups that run 2-4 hours depending on call volume. Big players upgrade to generators in critical locations: Sprint (8hrs), Verizon (72hrs), AT&T (120hrs).
Details: sfchronicle.com/business/artic…
Things that make me worry:
Weather warnings getting adjectives.
Weather warnings getting adjectives.
