A note on @NateSilver538 & the @FiveThirtyEight model: Regardless of how you feel about Silver's personal commentary, I do want to say, bc I know some of you trust my opinion, that the 538 model is still the very best predictive "fundamentals" model out there & is a very
reliable model that performed very well in 2018. What I'm doing is VERY different, our techniques are nothing alike. Indeed, my technique is diff than everyone. 1 of the reasons Silver's model is so good though, is that like mine, it is powered by political science. He built his
off of political science forecasting models & his sports modeling. Did he predict a Trump win in 2016? No. Did the model cover that outcome though? Yes, it did & better than any other. I was fresh out of grad school & had no idea I would ever be into election forecasting.
Frankly, I wasn't that into it. Now, I have no reason other than my desire to keep you as well informed to speak up for @NateSilver538 & @fivethirtyeight who has never really acknowledged my work. But yes, I want to state
that once the general election actually starts, and the @FiveThirtyEight model kicks on, it should DEF be one of the tools you rely on to monitor the election. I will be looking at it and hope to see it align w my predictions as it did in 2018.
