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, 4 tweets, 3 min read
New finding on Dynamic Range NVT!

When NVT Crosses the 2yr ave, an NVT "overvalued signal" occurs on average 103 days later.

What does this mean?

BTC rises 108% on ave over the following 3mths.

Guess when the last signal was?

Just 18 days ago.

@woonomic @cryptopoiesis
@woonomic @cryptopoiesis Some of the stats:
- 8 out of 14 occurrences since 2013 resulted in an "overvalued" signal touch within 100 days
- 11 out of 14 hit within 200 days
- The average draw-down, if you sell when signal crosses back under the ave, is -6%
@woonomic @cryptopoiesis And... the above assumes you sell immediately when the "overvalued signal" hits.

Holding longer can yield even higher returns.
@woonomic @cryptopoiesis I have updated the TV indicator to optionally show when these crosses occur.

tradingview.com/script/nQAdczU…
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Charles Edwards
@caprioleio
Valuing #Bitcoin with NVT Signal (credit: @woonomic).

I've published an indicator which tracks NVT Signal against a dynamic 2yr long-term range.

This should hopefully assist in future valuations, as private transactions tend toward inflating NVT Signal.

tradingview.com/chart/BLX/uqh5…
@woonomic Note: we are currently at the lower side of valuations, suggesting the present is an opportune period to buy Bitcoin.

However, undervaluation can persist for long periods (see 2015-2016).

Generally speaking, as a standalone metric, NVTS is better at identifying market tops.
@woonomic Dynamic Range NVT Signal.

A small modification to a great metric in identifying over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin.

Read more below about why Bitcoin is relatively inexpensive today.

medium.com/@charleswedwar…
Read 3 tweets

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Crypto Entropy
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