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, 5 tweets, 2 min read
One thing to mention, despite the fact the US did include provisions on drug pricing in its 2011 free trade agreement with South Korea, South Korea kinda ignored them.

phrma.org/-/media/Projec…
So ...
The US doubled down and re-clarified the commitments when Trump renegotiated the deal in 2017.

Impact tbc.

ustr.gov/sites/default/…
The fact trade policy is not clear cut at all is fun, guys. Honest.
Also this:
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
It has been brought to my attention that we need to sort out this using "no deal" to refer to 2 completely different things thing.

Leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is "no deal".

So what's leaving the EU with a WA but then failing to negotiate a future partnership?
No deal revisited? No deal 2.0? The remix to no deal?
Ummm. Lot's of excellent/terrible suggestions. Perhaps we will need to put it to a people's vote.
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Have spoken to a lot of small businesses over the past couple of weeks. Some thoughts on no deal and accidental illegality.

The first thing to say is majority I have spoken to have been preparing. I would say slightly better prepared than in March.
But most will still have missed something. Some examples:

1. Labelling. Post-Brexit all packaged food exports from UK to EU will need address of the EU-based importer or distributer on it. The packaging will no longer be able to show a made in EU stamp.

Few companies know this.
2. Liability. The liability for certifying that a product placed on the EU market conforms with EU standards will shift from UK producer to EU importer. Importer may refuse to take on liability or require additional assurances. Address of EU importer will need to be on product.
Read 5 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
A while ago I wrote a paper in which I estimated the potential impact being in a free trade agreement (much like the one Johnson wants) would have on UK services exports to the EU.

cer.eu/sites/default/…
(No one cared about it then, but who knows, maybe now is its time to shine.)
For reference, Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy estimated the equivalent tariff cost (if tariffs were levied on services, which they aren’t) of trade barriers facing UK services exporters to the EU, post-Brexit.

Similar story.

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…
Read 3 tweets

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Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
1 \ I reported today on @newsisrael13 that PM Netanyahu plans to travel to South Korea later this month to sign an important free trade agreement which will exclude the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem & Golan Heights
2 \ Netanyahu's trip in late July is expected to include Tokyo and Seoul. The free trade agreement with South Korea is worth billions to the Israeli economy - both in exports to South Korea and in cheaper imports that are expected to lower prices for consumers in Israel
3 \ Israeli officials told me the freetrade agreement with South Korea includes a territorial clause which excludes the settlements from the deal. It matters because goods from the settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem & Golan Heights will not enjoy the free trade benefits
Read 4 tweets
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Julie Laumann
@Otpor17
In 2012, Tim Cook announced Apple would make a Mac computer in the US.

But when Apple began making the $3000 computer in Texas, it struggled to find enough screws. By the time the computer was ready for mass production, Apple had ordered screws from China nyti.ms/2HBT2QK
Apple CEO Tim Cook: “The skill here is just incredible. In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.” (h/t @scottlincicome)
"Caterpillar said costs tied to new US tariffs on foreign goods, including steel and aluminum, were just above $100 million over the 5 months of 2018 that they were in effect.

The company expects more than $200 million in tariff-related costs this year." wsj.com/articles/cater…
Read 140 tweets
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Flick Ruby
@FlickRubicon
What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
ACTA, the "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement", was ultimately rejected. ​T​he agreement was an attempt to create a new global standard for intellectual property rights enforcement. wikileaks.org/wiki/Proposed_…
WikiLeaks released a document during talks at the WTO in Geneva that showed how the EU used threats to "reprogram development aid" if developing countries do not agree to sign a new free trade agreement with the EU. wikileaks.org/wiki/EU_aid_de…
Read 10 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets

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