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, 3 tweets, 2 min read
A while ago I wrote a paper in which I estimated the potential impact being in a free trade agreement (much like the one Johnson wants) would have on UK services exports to the EU.

cer.eu/sites/default/…
(No one cared about it then, but who knows, maybe now is its time to shine.)
For reference, Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy estimated the equivalent tariff cost (if tariffs were levied on services, which they aren’t) of trade barriers facing UK services exporters to the EU, post-Brexit.

Similar story.

economy-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/…
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More from @SamuelMarcLowe see all

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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
It has been brought to my attention that we need to sort out this using "no deal" to refer to 2 completely different things thing.

Leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement is "no deal".

So what's leaving the EU with a WA but then failing to negotiate a future partnership?
No deal revisited? No deal 2.0? The remix to no deal?
Ummm. Lot's of excellent/terrible suggestions. Perhaps we will need to put it to a people's vote.
Read 3 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Have spoken to a lot of small businesses over the past couple of weeks. Some thoughts on no deal and accidental illegality.

The first thing to say is majority I have spoken to have been preparing. I would say slightly better prepared than in March.
But most will still have missed something. Some examples:

1. Labelling. Post-Brexit all packaged food exports from UK to EU will need address of the EU-based importer or distributer on it. The packaging will no longer be able to show a made in EU stamp.

Few companies know this.
2. Liability. The liability for certifying that a product placed on the EU market conforms with EU standards will shift from UK producer to EU importer. Importer may refuse to take on liability or require additional assurances. Address of EU importer will need to be on product.
Read 5 tweets
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Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Rishi Sunak is wrong. Being in a customs union with the EU would have no impact on the NHS whatsoever.
If the UK is in a customs union with the EU and the EU negotiates a FTA with, say, Indonesia, the UK would also be obliged to negotiate a FTA with Indonesia that lowers preferential tariffs to the same level as EU.

UK not obliged to include anything the EU did on services.
As we've been repeatedly going over this for three years or so, here's a customs union #dataviz I prepared earlier.

Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Services. Remember them? Massively impacted by no-deal Brexit, but little discussed because we don't really understand them. The equivalent of the two day lorry queue at Dover could be the slow flow or even suspension of Eurostar services from London to Paris and Brussels. 1/n
Regular Eurostar travelers will know that French authorities check passports in a very small space in St Pancras International. They'll also know that non-EU travelers take longer to process. Well that will be us from November 1st given a no-deal Brexit.
As from November 1st UK citizens do not have the right to travel to work in the EU. We have the right to 90 days in 180 visa free for non work purposes. Both of these now need to be checked at points of entry to the EU. That will take more time. That means delays and queues. 3/
Read 21 tweets
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Julie Laumann
@Otpor17
In 2012, Tim Cook announced Apple would make a Mac computer in the US.

But when Apple began making the $3000 computer in Texas, it struggled to find enough screws. By the time the computer was ready for mass production, Apple had ordered screws from China nyti.ms/2HBT2QK
Apple CEO Tim Cook: “The skill here is just incredible. In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.” (h/t @scottlincicome)
"Caterpillar said costs tied to new US tariffs on foreign goods, including steel and aluminum, were just above $100 million over the 5 months of 2018 that they were in effect.

The company expects more than $200 million in tariff-related costs this year." wsj.com/articles/cater…
Read 140 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Flick Ruby
@FlickRubicon
What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
ACTA, the "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement", was ultimately rejected. ​T​he agreement was an attempt to create a new global standard for intellectual property rights enforcement. wikileaks.org/wiki/Proposed_…
WikiLeaks released a document during talks at the WTO in Geneva that showed how the EU used threats to "reprogram development aid" if developing countries do not agree to sign a new free trade agreement with the EU. wikileaks.org/wiki/EU_aid_de…
Read 10 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
At Chequers @theresa_may, alongside @POTUS, says she thanked him for expelling 60 intelligence officers from #Russia following Salisbury nerve agent incident.
Will pursue a US-UK free trade agreement following #Brexit, adds @theresa_may.
US and UK in agreement on how to deal with #DPRK and #Iran and need for increased @NATO defense spending, declares @theresa_may.
Read 40 tweets

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