October's jobs report shows +128k, which is about 30k more than consensus forecast. Add in the missing 50k GM workers on strike, and that's a pretty robust pace of job growth.
Unemployment remains strikingly low at 3.6%.
HUGE revisions, added +51k to August and +44k to Sept.
Unemployment remains strikingly low at 3.6%.
HUGE revisions, added +51k to August and +44k to Sept.
Put it all together, and this latest jobs report says the labor market is CHUGGING ALONG.
Over the past three months, it's averaged an extra +176k jobs per month. That's more than enough to keep pushing the unmployment rate down even further.
Over the past three months, it's averaged an extra +176k jobs per month. That's more than enough to keep pushing the unmployment rate down even further.
It's been striking how much discussion there's been about the R-word, through a period in which the economy has continued to generate tons more jobs.
Let's take a look at the household survey, which also shows job growth this month of +241k.
The employment to population continues to improve and is now 61%.
The employment to population continues to improve and is now 61%.
Fun fact: The unemployment rate this month isn't at its 50-year low of 3.5%. Instead, it's at 3.56%, which gets rounded up to 3.6%. But really, it's pretty much unchanged.
Nominal hourly wages are still only up 3.0% over the past year. If there's any sort of moderate productivity growth at all, then this is the sort of outcome that poses no threat whatsoever to the Fed's long-term inflation target.
Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle in today’s jobs report is the hint that nominal wage growth may even be declining.
