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Pretty good jobs report: Payrolls up +136k.
The unemployment rate is down to -- can you believe it -- 3.5%.
Merely moderate jobs growth from the prior two months have been revised upward by +45k in total.
The economy is still humming along. The expansion remains on track.
The unemployment rate is down to -- can you believe it -- 3.5%.
Merely moderate jobs growth from the prior two months have been revised upward by +45k in total.
The economy is still humming along. The expansion remains on track.
There's not a lot of news in this jobs report: Employment growth was close to most forecasts, and over the past 3 months, we've averaged a solid +157k jobs per month.
Teach a parrot to say "jobs growth will be150-200k", and the parrot would have been on the money for years now.
Teach a parrot to say "jobs growth will be150-200k", and the parrot would have been on the money for years now.
But another month on this 9-year long trend IS news.
The latest ISM surveys led some folks to fear that they just heard the economy crack, as it might have turned down. There's no evidence of that in these more reliable jobs numbers.
The latest ISM surveys led some folks to fear that they just heard the economy crack, as it might have turned down. There's no evidence of that in these more reliable jobs numbers.
Notable that in the same month that unemployment hit a fifty-year low that wage growth was in fact (slightly) negative in the month. Over the past year average hourly earnings are up only 2.9%, which suggests the Fed is likely to continue to undershoot its inflation target.
Unemployment is low & wage growth is stable.
=> Whatever you thought the lowest sustainable unemployment rate was, it's time to revise that number down. Either revise down your estimate of the NAIRU, or revise your sense of whether it's a useful concept at all.
=> Whatever you thought the lowest sustainable unemployment rate was, it's time to revise that number down. Either revise down your estimate of the NAIRU, or revise your sense of whether it's a useful concept at all.
It's a tale of two economies: The goods-producing sector (which is exposed to trade madness) is slowing. The service sector isn't.
Be careful: We have dozens of measures of manufacturing, the industrial sector and goods production (which are weak), and far fewer measures of services production (which remain strong).
As a result, a disproportionate number of indicators look weak.
As a result, a disproportionate number of indicators look weak.
