It's worth taking a sec to focus on this point regarding the "realist" crowd. You know what's "realistic" if you keep the Senate's 60-vote threshold? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Mitch McConnell is not going to give you 7-9 votes for *anything* meaningful. It's just not going to happen.
"But after I win, Republicans will work with me." No, they won't. In 2008, Obama won 365 electoral votes. Dems posted two straight cycles of massive House and Senate gains. Republicans obstructed because they wanted to show that Dems can't deliver. They'll do the same in 2021.
"But I can get GOP votes for pragmatic proposals." No, you can't. First, you'll need a lot: 7-9 minimum. Second, remember: the GOP's goal is to manufacture gridlock, period. That means not passing anything. They'll pretend to negotiate, then back off and the press will buy it.
Under the 60-vote threshold, it's far easier to block than pass. Under Obama, Republicans learned it's easy to defray blame for obstruction, especially if Dems control most of the government. Rs won't pay a price for obstruction, but a Dem POTUS will pay for lack of action.
(And by the way, the reason any Democratic POTUS will need McConnell to give them up to 9 Senate GOP votes is that in the absolute best-case scenario, Dems take back the Senate with a majority in the low-50s on election night 2020.)
The next time Biden, Bennet, Buttigieg, Klobuchar or anyone else tries to position themselves as the arbiter of what is and is not "realistic," ask them how they plan to get 60 votes for literally anything they're proposing.
There is no "realistic" answer.
There is no "realistic" answer.
Also: racism definitely played a role in Republicans' relentless obstruction of Obama. But now that they know it works for them politically, they'll deploy it against any POTUS. Their goal will be to manufacture gridlock, period. And ride voter frustration to gains in 2022.
The filibuster is fundamentally a question of what problem you want to have as POTUS: do you want to be a Dem POTUS (with Senate coattails, if Dems with the majority) whipping Dem votes for policies Dem voters like, or trying to pry GOP votes loose for policies GOP voters hate?
Sinema, Manchin and a few others will be problems. But if Dems have the majority in 2021, it'll be because a number of new senators rode the Dem POTUS' coattails - including possibly in AZ. Getting Dem votes in that scenario is a better problem to have than getting GOP votes.
I don’t know the number offhand, but many - probably most - of the Senate Democrats who voted to nuke the filibuster for nominees in 2013 were on record opposing it - including Reid, Schumer and other leaders. So, you know... price that in.
