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New Post/ABC poll shows all the leading Democrats beating Trump among registered voters nationally by wide margins:

Biden: 56-39

Warren: 55-40

Sanders: 55-41

Buttigieg: 52-41

Harris: 51-42

washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
These numbers raise the possibility that Trump could still win the Electoral College amid an even larger national popular vote loss this time.

See this interview with the Dem state chair of Wisconsin about how brutally hard that state will be:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
I should clarify this last tweet, because it's badly worded. Obviously with national margins this big Trump wouldn't win the EC. My point was just that any indicators that Trump may lose popular vote should be balanced against what we know about how much harder the EC will be.
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More from @ThePlumLineGS see all

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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
1) The new defense of Trump from his loyalists is laughably disingenuous.

Their claim now is that, yes, there may have been a quid pro quo, but you can't show *Trump himself* was behind it.

But the *already known* facts show this is steaming nonsense.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
2) Let's walk through this.

Trump himself personally ordered the military aid frozen.

And officials were ordered not to share details about it with lawmakers.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
3) Giuliani publicly confirmed the whole plot as early as May, and continued to do so for months.

Here's an important quote from Giuliani we should revisit now:

“I don’t do anything that involves my client without speaking with my client.”

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Read 6 tweets
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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
1) The idea that Trump's base possesses a kind of limitless power, reach and depth that still remains untapped is a central feature of Trump's propagandistic depiction of his own political invulnerability.

This notion is central to the Cult of Trump.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
2) Everybody rightly mocked RNC chair Ronna McDaniel for her Baghdad Bob spin of the Kentucky loss.

But, in claiming Trump swung the polls by 17 points (LOL) by activating the base, McDaniel was speaking directly to that cult-like set of beliefs.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
3) The thing is that Trump *actually does* believe he can win only by activating the base.

He puts this into practice every day.

The idea that he needs swing voters is itself an admission of a kind of weakness -- that Trump's America has limits.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
Read 6 tweets
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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
Wow. Sondland has updated his testimony, and he's now confirming that he told Ukraine that it would not get its military aid unless it publicly committed to the investigations Trump wanted, NYT reports:

nytimes.com/2019/11/05/us/…

We're getting very close to fully confirming this:
And there it is, the quid pro quo, straight from Sondland's mouth:
It's worth going back to Sondland's original statement.

Note that his wording on the quid pro quo point is weaselly. He carefully says there was no QPQ for "assistance with the president's reelection campaign" rather than for "the statements Trump wanted." Gave him wiggle room:
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change v last month)
Warren: 28 (+4)
Biden: 25 (+1)
Sanders: 13 (-4)
Harris: 5 (0)
Buttigieg: 5 (-1)
Yang: 3 (+1)
Bullock: 2 (+1)
Klobuchar: 2 (+1)

All else ≤ 1%
% of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (over last month):

Warren: 55%
Biden: 47
Sanders: 39
Harris: 30
Buttigieg: 28
Booker: 18
O'Rourke: 16
Yang: 13
Klobuchar: 11
Castro: 11

All else < 10%
% of Democratic primary voters who would be disappointed if ___ candidate won the nomination (over the last month):

Williamson: 32
Gabbard: 23
Biden: 22
Delaney: 21
Steyer: 20
Sanders: 19
Bennet: 17
Yang: 17
O'Rourke: 16
Booker: 13
Buttigieg: 11
Warren: 8
Read 7 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Friend or Foe?
@starknightz
1. #News ~ When it comes to money, America MAKES IT RAIN - it is the only game in town: Varney foxbusiness.com/economy/when-i…

#Trump #Qanon @realDonaldTrump #WWG1WGA
#Trump2020 #WINNING #MAGA #KAG
2. #News ~ CDC Admits Measles Outbreak Not Caused by Children with Religious Exemptions artvoice.com/2019/06/20/cdc…

#Trump #Qanon
3. #News ~ LAWLESS DEMOCRAT LEADERS Vow to Resist ICE Raids on Illegal Aliens on Sunday (Video) thegatewaypundit.com/2019/06/lawles…

#Trump #Qanon #LockHerUp
Read 115 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
These are significant because #Warren is after #Sanders and #Harris in the polls where they rank 1st and 2nd (not counting Biden since he's not in) but her fundraising is below #Booker.
As these money rankings stay, Warren is in trouble for the debates like Castro and Gillibrand are because of the rules on how fundraising numbers = viability. Not making the debates would be terrible since #Warren & #Gillibrand are the most progressive & #Castro the only Latinx.
Also, these daily totals are averaged, but they aren't representative as a metric because all these candidates entered at different times & Sanders never stopped fundraising from 2016.
The question is, how much is no big donors hurting #Harris & #Warren?
Read 3 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 753
-Wants 2 Rob Disaster Money 4 Wall
-National Debt Surpasses $22 Trillion
-Unaware 4th of July Parade Exists
-Mueller Probe Has a Cost Surplus
-7M 90 Days Late on Auto Payment
-Interior Sec Raises Ethics Concerns
-Lied About El Paso Rally Crowd Size
Add...
Day 858 since Donald Trump admitted to sexual assault — yet he’s still in the Oval Office
Add...
Day 709 of NO EVIDENCE produced by Trump that his phones were tapped by Obama.

The FISA warrant Trump referenced targeted Carter Page. #TrumpLies
Read 77 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 739
-Met with Putin Without Note-Taker
-Contradicted by Nat'l Security Team
-Russia Offered NoKo Nuclear Plant
-Prepares 2 Sue Cliff Sims over NDA
-Actor Beaten by MAGA Supporters
-Sending 2K More Troops 2 Border
-Seeks to Hire 23 Foreign Workers
Add...
Day 844 since Donald Trump admitted to sexual assault — yet he’s still in the Oval Office
Add...
Wynn Resorts execs turned a blind eye as ex-RNC finance chair Steve Wynn for more than a decade was accused of sexually assaulting or harassing cocktail servers, salon workers & flight attendants employed by his casinos, a regulator's report alleges.wsj.com/articles/wynn-…
Read 78 tweets

Trending hashtags

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