Climate change is so hard to solve because the temperature change effects of CO₂ emissions are cumulative.
Temperatures will keep rising until CO₂ emissions reach zero (small circles in the figure).
This also means that 1.5°C warming is practically unavoidable.
1/
Temperatures will keep rising until CO₂ emissions reach zero (small circles in the figure).
This also means that 1.5°C warming is practically unavoidable.
1/
The cumulative effects of CO₂ are well known, in fact, it turns out that CO₂ induced warming is proportional to cumulative CO₂ emissions.
Non-CO₂ emissions play an important role, but the temperature response is not cumulative.
2/
Non-CO₂ emissions play an important role, but the temperature response is not cumulative.
2/
Because CO₂ emissions will not go to zero overnight, we are committed to more warming. We may also get additional warming on top from aerosol removal.
The CO₂ induced warming does not abate unless CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere. Increased climate impacts unavoidable.
3/
The CO₂ induced warming does not abate unless CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere. Increased climate impacts unavoidable.
3/
This last point is important. Those that claim societal collapse in 2030 (or so) are basically saying societal collapse is unavoidable.
I would rather say adaptation is unavoidable...
4/4
I would rather say adaptation is unavoidable...
4/4
Bonus: For those that want to know how I made that figure. I used the SSP database tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti… and took the median of scenarios in each radiative forcing level. I am trying to show the effects of time lags in the figure.
