Right now, the future of #Bolivia is being decided in the streets, not the halls of power. Thread on the worst crisis Bolivia has seen in years, questions of coup attempt, US support for opposition, gov’t repression, enduring impact of MAS gains, ways out of current impasse. /1
A coup is under way in Bolivia against Morales in sense that complete turmoil is being provoked by various opposition groups which could lead to overthrow. Strategies include destruction of gov't buildings & coordinated attacks on MAS supporters, politicians, centers of power. /2
Gov’t/MASista repression of opposition is real, as is gov’t authorized use of dynamite by miners in demonstrations, efforts to remove opposition road barricades. Cool heads in leadership have been rare in showdown, marked by macho declarations escalating not calming tensions. /3
Yet military is unlikely to shift alliances away from government and MAS firmly holds reigns on state power. /4
But did MAS rig the Oct 20 vote? Is the US backing this coup? That the answers to these key questions are unclear appears to matter little on the ground in this stage of the impassioned conflict. /5
The long-fermented fury and momentum of opposition groups is real even without US support, which is certainly present for some sectors as it always has been. /6
The current conflict, perhaps the gravest since 2003 and 2008, puts into question Morales' future, but more significantly, the future and historic gains of the "process of change" he has helped thrive with concrete yet contradictory results. /7
Many groups are calling for fresh elections, which may help redirect unhinged levels of violence and confrontation toward a peaceful resolution. But political power is now not with the presidential palace or OAS, it’s in the streets. /8
Clarification on this pt: This is not at all to suggest that all opposition groups are golpistas, or to paint things only in a coup vs Evo binary, only to mention that the generalized destabilization, targeted attacks on government offices and officials...
& rhetoric from many opposition leaders could create context for a coup attempt, as such a situation has in other moments in Chile, VZ, Honduras. But the opposition is very diverse in tactics, political orientation, demands and should not be labelled as one homogeneous group.
