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So much of life is pure luck, being in the right place at the right time.

This is not that.
Here are some other examples of tech visionaries:

Aug 2006: Elon Musk publishes "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan"

tesla.com/blog/secret-te…
May 1995: Bill Gates writes an internal memo titled "The Internet Tidal Wave"

lettersofnote.com/2011/07/intern…
2003: Ben Affleck predicts the rise of streaming services like Spotify and Netflix and explains the economics behind the business models.

1999: David Bowie explains why the internet is not just another tool, why it’s not simply a different delivery system

1967: Educational video (produced with consultants from Bell Labs) predicts the future of e-commerce, video conferencing, and social networks.
By contrast...
June 1997: Jeff Bezos explains why attention is the ultimate scarce commodity in the age of the internet (and why word-of-mouth & earned media were so important to Amazon's growth).

(h/t @BrianRoemmele)
@BrianRoemmele June 1997: Jeff Bezos explains why print advertising is so much worse than online advertising ("a marketer's nirvana"), effectively predicting the rise of ad-based business models years before Google and Facebook were founded.

(h/t @BrianRoemmele)
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Alec Stapp
@AlecStapp
1/ This op-ed by Matt Stoller frames the history of advertising & journalism in a fundamentally incorrect way:
2/ Stoller argues as if the ad-based business model for local journalism was the natural state of the world — upended only by the FB & Google "monopolies."

In reality, print newspapers had a monopoly on local info distribution due to the prevailing technologies of their time.
3/ Stoller says, “It’s tempting to blame the rise of the internet for [the crisis in journalism], but it’s important to recognize that technology is shaped by law.”

It’s so tempting because it is, in fact, true!

Newspapers were disrupted by the internet. Here's how...
Read 18 tweets
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Alec Stapp
@AlecStapp
Netflix recently released a documentary about the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data scandal called "The Great Hack"

In a saner universe, the film would be regarded as the work of conspiracy theorists.

Here are 7 big things The Great Hack gets wrong...
truthonthemarket.com/2019/08/27/7-t…
1. Great Hack: "once everybody has their own reality, it’s relatively easy to manipulate them."

Wrong.

Research shows "the best estimate of the effects of campaign contact and advertising on Americans’ candidates choices in general elections is zero."

stanford.edu/~dbroock/publi…
2. Or was CA's micro-targeting strategy so effective that it would get above-average effects?

Nope.

Voters “rarely prefer targeted pandering to general messages” and “seem to prefer being solicited based on broad principles and collective beliefs.”

jstor.org/stable/10.1017…
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Alec Stapp 🌎🚀
@alecstapp
Meta 🚨: Things I Learned Reading "Things I Learned in 2018" Posts

HT @kenthendricks @TomWhitwell @WillRinehart @david_perell, full links at end.

1/ "Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus rex than separated T. rex from Stegosaurus." @Laelaps smithsonianmag.com/science-nature…
2/ Marchetti’s constant: "The time humans spend commuting is about 1 hour and largely independent of the distance, the country or even the continent in which they live" journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
3/ "NBA teams behind by a point at halftime actually win more often than teams ahead by one, or approximately six percentage points more often than expected." faculty.chicagobooth.edu/devin.pope/ass…
Read 36 tweets

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