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A favourite line of those who want to continue our dependence on fossil fuels as long as possible is, "those climate models, you just can't trust them." Yet these are the energy models they trust for renewable energy forecasts?! (h/t @aukehoekstra + @GarethSJones1 for figures)
@AukeHoekstra @GarethSJones1 When you look at how well the rudimentary climate models + back-of-the-envelope scenarios of the 1970s and 1980s have performed relative to observations, it's even more stunning. Read:…
@AukeHoekstra @GarethSJones1 And climate models are constantly having their tires kicked in all kinds of ways, as this Global Weirding episode explains:
@AukeHoekstra @GarethSJones1 My own research often evaluates models' ability to reproduce key regional features. Here, we found some models' historical climatology to be too strong and others too weak ... but ALL reproduced the anomalies that bring drought to the South Central US.…
@AukeHoekstra @GarethSJones1 And of course we can't forget Svante Arrhenius, who calculated the very first global energy-balance climate model -- by hand, in the 1890s! He even showed how much faster the Arctic would warm relative to the rest of the world.…
@AukeHoekstra @GarethSJones1 Nor Ben Santer, though he is too smart to be on Twitter. No one has done more than him to address questions on climate model reliability relative to satellite observations and his work is the gold standard in our field.… and…
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