Thread by @kellyatrout

A #FixTheWEO *THREAD* on how the @IEA is still boosting fossil fuels & acting as an obstacle on #climate with #WEO19.

TL;DR: It fails the biggest test – charting an energy road map to staying within 1.5°C, when that is a key to survival for millions of people. 1/

@IEA First things first: Why care? As Andrew Logan @CeresNews put it: "The @IEA is effectively creating its own reality. They project ever-increasing demand for fossil fuels, which in turn justifies greater investments in supply." 2/
reuters.com/article/us-cli…

@IEA @CeresNews When the world's 'gold standard' of energy analysis gives central billing to a 3°C scenario, @IEA normalizes a path we can't afford to take rather than focusing attention on the path we urgently need to pursue ➡️ below 1.5°C. 3/ ft.com/content/5c80f1…

@IEA @CeresNews Some folks counter: But don’t we need to know how far off track we are from #climate goals? 🤔

Yes, we do. But @IEA could alert us via a secondary, cautionary scenario slapped with warning signs. ⚠️

How useful is a super-detailed map that highlights the wrong direction? 🤷🏻‍♀️4/

@IEA @CeresNews Oh, wait! 👋🏼 It’s useful for the fossil fuel industry. Regulators & companies have used WEOs to justify Arctic drilling, #Adani coal mine & #TransMountain tar sands pipeline to name a few. Here Chevron adviser Sean Comey uses WEO18 in NYT to basically say “everything is fine”: 5/

@IEA @CeresNews In #WEO19, @IEA makes some improvements around the edges. Like in WEO16, they sketch a 1.5°C pathway. But it’s discussed in just 7 out of 600+ pages of analysis. The path we need gets the *least* detail. 6/
priceofoil.org/2019/11/13/iea…

@IEA @CeresNews In the brief #WEO19 1.5°C section, @IEA almost sounds annoyed they were pushed to include it. Change would be “very difficult & very expensive,” they say. As if we shouldn't bother avoiding the worst of climate change? As if that's affordable? 7/

@IEA @CeresNews Instead, @IEA claims their Sustainable Development Scenario is “fully aligned” with Paris goals.

🚨It’s not.🚨 According to @JoeriRogelj, an IPCC lead author, the SDS “remains inconsistent with 1.5C and several aspects of the Paris Agreement.” 8/ business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-p…

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj Eventually rerouting the #WEO19 “Sustainable” Development Scenario towards 1.5°C would require levels of CO2 removal after 2070 that ...

...“go well beyond the sustainable limits that the IPCC has identified,” says IPCC #SR15 author @JoeriRogelj. 9/ climatechangenews.com/2019/11/13/iea…

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj Conveniently for Big Oil, @IEA’s ambition gap leaves room for #WEO19 to help justify trillions in new fossil fuel investment - under the 3°C scenario AND below-2°C SDS. Box 2.3 in fact calls investment in new oil & gas extraction a “necessary part of the energy transition.” 10/

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj In #WEO19, @IEA continues to describe a massive expansion of U.S. fracking as if it's something positive: The "race is not yet run." "Reasons for comfort" on oil security.

But ICYMI this drilling "race" takes us towards #climate disaster. 11/ huffpost.com/entry/us-frack…

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj .@Global_Witness noted #WEO19 projects that fossil gas use would *increase* by nearly 10% over the next decade in its “climate” scenario. Perhaps why the Int'l Gas Union praised @IEA today for placing “gas at the heart of a sustainable energy future.” 12/ prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj @Global_Witness But @PriceofOil analysis shows we already have TOO MUCH oil, gas & coal extraction locked in from *existing* fields & mines if we’re serious about staying below 1.5°C or well below 2°C. #KeepItInTheGround 13/

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj @Global_Witness @PriceofOil Even where #WEO19 examines the threat of CO2 locked in by coal plants, it suggests investing billions of $$ in CCS (plus EOR!) and retrofits that would stall a renewable transition. I suggest some adjustments for @IEA’s “traffic light” visuals below... 14/

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj @Global_Witness @PriceofOil To sum it up, #WEO19 is still providing cover for prolonging fossil fuels rather than steering towards the endpoint we need: keeping warming below 1.5°C. In a #ClimateEmergency, that’s a mission-critical failure. It’s time for @IEABirol to #FixtheWEO. 15/ fixtheweo.org

@IEA @CeresNews @JoeriRogelj @Global_Witness @PriceofOil @IEABirol .@IEA scenarios sound abstract, but they have very real consequences for the well-being of communities all over the world. On that point, I’ll sign off with wisdom from Graça Machel, Deputy Chair of @TheElders. #FixTheWEO #WEO19 16/16