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Happy birthday to the Withdrawal Agt!

First version delivered 14 Nov 2018

1/
 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Since then we've had:

4 Meaningful Votes
2 sets of Indicative Votes
1 renegotiation
And a vote to Second Reading by the UK Parliament of the implementing legislation

/2
Look forward to finding whether its 2nd year of existence is any easier/clearer

/end
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More from @Usherwood see all

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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
I've now written up my coding on the extent to which #GE2019 manifestoes depend upon the outcome of Brexit

Lots of graphs and links to data: blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2019/…
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow CON - relatively high dependencies, but very contingent on what kind of deal they strike with the EU
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow LAB - very little dependency, partly because of their non-position on outcomes to a referendum
Read 7 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
How much do the programmes of the parties depend on Brexit?

I've mapped this for CON & LAB (other parties to follow)

tl;dr it varies a lot, but it's not a sine qua non for most intended activity

PDFS: CON- drive.google.com/open?id=1nHifM… LAB - drive.google.com/open?id=1dn5Fo…
@UKandEU @DrAlanWager @matt_bevington @SurreyPolitics @anandMenon1 @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow To expand on this, I've taken the section headings from the manifestoes and checked how much the pledges require particular relationships with the EU, and then whether that in turn requires specific EU agreement
@UKandEU @DrAlanWager @matt_bevington @SurreyPolitics @anandMenon1 @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow The large majority have nothing to do with EU policy or relationships, directly.

However, it's worth noting that until Art.50 is done, there is likely to be very little bandwidth to actively pursue the other stuff, so there is (as we've seen) a environmental effect.
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Part of a survey being done by our local @LibDems candidate: Q6 coming in a helpful bar chart to you soon, one imagines...
Seems to have helped some household members decide how to vote, so that's something

Albeit not in the way intended
The full survey, for completists

Excellent material for a survey design class @MiddletonAlia
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Useful Q&A on the EU Commission website: ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Screenshot of section on free trade agreements and Northern IrelandScreenshot of section on VATScreenshot of section on
And this on the political declaration, including "level playing field" provisions to prevent lower standards on labour, environment, state aid, etc, which would give an unfair competitive advantage

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Screenshot of the section on the political declaration
I've deleted a tweet in this thread about services and replaced it with this.

It's not ignored in the political declaration, only in the Q&A summary

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
Read 3 tweets
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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
So... it seems that a new Withdrawal Agreement has been agreed. I haven't yet read it; but here is a link, and a thread on the implications. 1/
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Under the new agreement and political declaration, NI will be subject to different (closer) alignment and customs rules than GB, which will be free to diverge more widely. So, there will be more of a border in the Irish Sea than now. The detail on consent will be key. 2/
All the signs are that the EU-27 and the UK Government support the new deal. A vote on the Agreement in the HoC may be able to happen on Saturday. There is intense speculation about what might happen then. 3/
Read 12 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Ok, nervous moment now. Let's see what's in it and what happens next.
Caution on all those saying DUP on board. Don't believe it until you hear it from them. Could be attempt to bounce them into it.
Main non-DUP issue for Johnson now. If it's an indicative vote on general basis for deal, it won't work to stop the Benn Act forcing a request for an extension. But if it is a detailed legal text, the ERG will see all the little gremlins in it, like ECJ jurisdiction.
Read 61 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
New EU-US deal on beef? Not new news, and the deal still has to be signed.

@Channel4News said Trump has just announced it. Media reports that signing was imminent were published several hours ago. The EU announced the deal on July 15.

1/7
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press… Screenshot of headline and first 3 paragraphs of the EU release
What is the deal?

It arises from a WTO dispute, DS26, which the EU lost over its ban on beef from cattle with added hormones.

The eventual ruling was the EU didn't have scientific evidence to support its ban on the beef.

2/7
wto.org/english/tratop…
Politically, the EU was unable to lift the ban.

The US retaliated by charging tariffs on selected EU products (mainly luxury products, including some from Britain), that were so high imports were impossible.

3/7
Read 10 tweets
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Steve Peers
@StevePeers
Gosh. The "EU can't do trade deals" trope has another encounter with reality.
Press release with some details on the agreement in principle on the EU/Mercosur free trade agreement - ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Some further details of the EU/Mercosur free trade agreement: ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Read 4 tweets
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Alex Barker
@alexebarker
My skim of the bumper UK withdrawal treaty, in no particular order

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
The transition extension clause. A one off extension. But no fixed date is set, apart from it being within this century....
A financial settlement needed to cover transition extension. But Britain won't be treated as a member state -- so it won't be paying and receiving as it does today. It will be outside CAP, for instance, but there are limits set on UK subsidies to farmers.
Read 37 tweets

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