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I've now written up my coding on the extent to which #GE2019 manifestoes depend upon the outcome of Brexit

Lots of graphs and links to data: blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2019/…
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow CON - relatively high dependencies, but very contingent on what kind of deal they strike with the EU
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow LAB - very little dependency, partly because of their non-position on outcomes to a referendum
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow LD - very little dependency again, and surprisingly little about shaping EU policy as members (but also a query about the Brexit bonus thing)
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow BXP - seem to assume the EU disappears after a no-deal exit
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow Greens - rather more critical take on being EU members
@UKandEU @SurreyPolitics @SurreyCbe @anandMenon1 @matt_bevington @DrAlanWager @ProfTimBale @jillongovt @AndrewSparrow Happy to take corrections/comments
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Three things to remember when you vote in #GE2019:

1) Whoever wins, Brexit won't get 'done'

2) All Brexit outcomes come with big costs

3) How Brexit is pursued matters deeply to what else a government can deliver
1) The most any party can offer is to get the UK out of the 1st stage of Brexit - leaving the EU - and into the next phase - setting up a new relationship with the EU

2) Whether UK leaves EU with a deal, without a deal, or not at all, there will be economic, political, social and reputation costs (and substantial ones) for most involved, so make sure you understand why, how and on on whom those fall
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
When you vote in #GE2019 , vote to get Brexit done RIGHT, not simply to get it done.

None of the parties' plans will make Brexit stop being an issue, so it's vital you make your voice heard on which kind of More of This Kind of Thing you get

1/
What you've been hearing about for the past couple of years is only one part of 'Brexit'; the leaving-the-EU part

We still have to do the other part; the setting-up-a-new-relationship-with-the-EU bit

And that's much more complicated

2/
I've put together some points here, but the general message is "if you thought it was bad so far, you're really not going to like the next phase"



3/
Read 10 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Some notes on the BXP resignations

tl;dr this is a structural problem for eurosceptics

1/
Today's loss of 3 MEPs from the Brexit Party, after yesterday's expulsion of @john4brexit, was driven by differences over electoral strategy: rebels wanted to drop contesting seats where CON might beat LAB, rather than just the no-contest-of-sitting-CONs that Farage went for

2/
@john4brexit But this hides a deeper problem for parties motivated by euroscepticism: you might be against something EU-y, but what are you for?

3/
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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Rasmus Kleis Nielsen
@rasmus_kleis
UK General Election now well under way–what did journalists learn from 2017 election and #Brexit referendum, and what has been done to address problems like lack of diversity, lack of reporters outside London, over-reliance on inside sources and polls? Thread with some reads 1/12
First, @risj_oxford data on public's view. BBC, ITV, and some newspapers broadly trusted, but just 40% say they trust news media (and only 10% news in social media), and in 2018 55% said they are concerned over stories spun to push a particular agenda digitalnewsreport.org/survey/2019/un… 2/12
One problem, @helenlewis writes, is that many “political journalists are stuck in the Commons and on Twitter"
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… 3/12
Read 13 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
Read 8 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Loads of noise re: #Brexit & N.Ireland right now. No need to add to that -
But worth pausing to listen to what those in the region most affected are saying.
👉 interim findings of TheBorderIntoBrexit @BorderBrexit study: go.qub.ac.uk/BorderBrexit
(only 6 pages)
Please 👀 & RT
1/12
@BorderBrexit They're results of an online survey (475 respondents) from both sides @BorderIrish, conducted by @QUBelfast @milena_komarova & me for @europe_icban.

It shows rising anxieties re: a hard border & #NoDeal are having tangible effects in decisions & actions in border region.

2/12
@BorderBrexit @BorderIrish @QUBelfast @milena_komarova @europe_icban The survey confirms #Brexit is already having an impact on life on both sides of the border.

Respondents report economic changes (e.g. job losses, business disinvestment, problems in labour recruitment) plus rising concerns about the #peace process & future stability.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
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Dr Oliver Daddow
@oliver_daddow
1/
 This thread summarises a talk given as part of the @NottsPolitics new students' induction panel "Brexit and the Future of British Politics". The panel included a series of short talks on all aspects of Brexit, followed by Q&A. Incredible Hulk and Boris Johnson
2/
 The talk was "Brexit Metaphors and the Poverty of Political Language". It lasted 10-12 mins: was necessarily succinct.

It didn't cover inflammatory political language ramped up in Parliament this wk by Johnson, though clearly that merits close analysis. Independent article about Johnson's language.
3/
 The central argument unfolded in stages:

First, politicians lie, dissemble "bullshit" (see article below), and are "creative" with language.

Second, this doesn't mean we should ignore what they say and how they say it (their discourse). See this week. Hopkin and Rosamond, 'Post-Truth Politics'.
Read 21 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. It's the £39bn question...could @BorisJohnson or other hard brexiteer PM really withhold payment of the #Brexit bill. Legally? Politically?

(Shorter: not really)

1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
@BorisJohnson Let's start with the legal position. Brexiteers often sight this March 2017 House of Lords Cmme report as grounds for saying that in a 'no deal' the UK would have no obligation if Article 50 lapsed. /2

publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ld…
@BorisJohnson But as @IainBeggLSE and others explain here, the actual position is more nuanced than that... in truth, you would not really find out until it ended up in the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague. /3

channel4.com/news/factcheck…
Read 19 tweets
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BorderWarnings
@BorderWarnings
1~
18.04.2016
Theresa Villiers contradicts statements by Ahern, Hayes and Lawson.
irishnews.com/news/2016/04/1…
2~
Warnings from:
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister
Peter Mandleson, former U.K. Northern Ireland secretary
Dermot Ahern, Former Irish Foreign Minister
Conor Patterson, CEO Newry and Mourne Co-operative and Enterprise Agency
politico.eu/article/northe…
3~
12.05.2016
FW Steinmeier, German Foreign Minister:
"The very moment that the U.K. leaves, we'll have a border again between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That has at least the potential to ignite a conflict that apparently has become totally calm."
politico.eu/article/juncke…
Read 92 tweets

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