Thread by @syrpis

So... it seems that a new Withdrawal Agreement has been agreed. I haven't yet read it; but here is a link, and a thread on the implications. 1/
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

Under the new agreement and political declaration, NI will be subject to different (closer) alignment and customs rules than GB, which will be free to diverge more widely. So, there will be more of a border in the Irish Sea than now. The detail on consent will be key. 2/

All the signs are that the EU-27 and the UK Government support the new deal. A vote on the Agreement in the HoC may be able to happen on Saturday. There is intense speculation about what might happen then. 3/

The key groups are the DUP, the ERG, the Tory rebels, and the Labour leavers. And on the 'remain' side (Lab, LD, SNP etc) there are big questions as to what the strategy should be. 4/

Parliament may approve the deal. If that happens (in all likelihood after a short 'technical' extension) Brexit will happen on the agreed terms. 5/

Parliament may reject the deal. If the (full) deal is not approved on Saturday, the PM has, under the Benn Act, to ask for an extension. In those circs, a GE seems the most likely outcome. 6/

Or, Parliament may agree to the deal, but with a people's vote (on the deal v remain) attached. That could be done under PM Johnson, or, if he refuses, under a temporary PM or leader of a Govt of (so-called) National Unity. 7/

I am surprised that Johnson has reached agreement with the EU. He - like Theresa May - has made Brexit concrete. In doing so, he is likely to have lost of the support of some leave voters, who envisaged a very different sort of Brexit. 8/

Those who want 'no deal' will be disappointed. Nigel Farage will claim that, once again, a Tory PM has betrayed leave voters (by agreeing a withdrawal agreement). So too will those who want a softer Brexit outcome. 9/

If Johnson manages to get the deal through Parliament, he will (I'd guess) be able to ride the storm, to win a mandate for his Brexit, and then... he will face the challenge of negotiating our future relationship with the EU. 10/

But if he doesn't, I don't think that things look at all good for him. He will be forced to defend a messy Brexit compromise, and will be attacked on both flanks. 11/

There will be *a lot* riding on Saturday's (likely) votes in Parliament. All sides need to think, and think carefully, about whether this deal will serve the UK's interests in the years ahead; and about whether and how different futures may be created. 12/12