1/ 2019 UK Elections Brexit Permutations
2/ The election is on 12 December with MPs returning on 17 December to elect the Speaker and be sworn in
3/ A date for the State Opening of Parliament is not yet set but likely to be January
4/ So what does it mean for Brexit and in particular the risk of no deal?
5/ If the Tories win a majority then Johnson is likely to bring back his withdrawal deal and ask parliament to approve it in January so the UK leaves by 31 Jan 2020 (Scenario 1).
6/ If Tories don’t get a majority they may seek to form a deal with the DUP and the Brexit Party to gain support for Johnson’s withdrawal deal. If so, Johnson would bring back the deal to parliament so the UK leaves by 31 Jan 2020 (Scenario 2).
7/ If Labours wins a majority then it renegotiates the withdrawal deal and puts it against remain in a referendum. That would probably mean a further 6 month extension. (Scenario 3).
8/ If Labour cannot get a majority then it could have a confidence and supply or other arrangement with Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid Cmyru and SNP (most likely to agree a referendum as per Labour policy). That would mean a further 6 extension. (Scenario 4).
9/ Scenarios 1 and 2 risk a no deal outcome at the end of the transition period for the withdrawal agreement.
10/ It looks like Labour, Lib Dem’s, SNP, Greens, Plaid Cmyru won’t win enough seats to form a majority unless Labour enters into an electoral pact
11/ So Labour needs to stand aside in certain seats to get others to stand aside in other seats with the aim of winning an overall majority
12/ If they don’t all join forces they risk a Tory led no deal at the end of 2020.
13/ In fact the only way to have a chance of renegotiating a deal and having a referendum is to side with Lib Dem’s, SNP, Plaid Cmyru and Greens in an electoral pact
