#Brexit ALREADY costs UK £1bn pw as we Hit Holidays! @GoldmanSachs put that lower at £600m. but I'm looking at 2+% less GDP (than would have been); more Govt Debt (+interest); the growing impact of #Brexodus on jobs/taxtake; £devaln.&inflation creep, reducing Property values.1/20
@GoldmanSachs Am puzzled & mortified? that UK's so-called Major Political Parties @Conservatives @UKLabour seem umbilically disconnected? from the financial IMPACT of their recent (let's say) 'accidental collusions' and Brexit-Birth-Giving! Why the co-incidental & costly numeracy lapse? 2/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour Assuming that (eg) @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady are aware of UK's #Brexit financial haemorrhage? eg Govt Debt, Jobs/Tax, Businesses (all sizes), Individuals - there may be varying estimates? but agreement that a HUGE hit is ongoing! 3/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady - This HUGE cash hit didn't start y'day, and won't end tomorrow! It's been growing up to £1bn pw for the past 3 or 4 yrs, and it'll keep growing! given the 'do or die' stance now invoked by OUR unelected PM & new HMG (completing their #Blukip coup) with more £££hits to come? 4/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady Against the backdrop of falling business confidence, diminishing asset values (eg commercial/domestic property) and ever-growing 'forced dismantlement' of complex JIT supply chains (to exclude UK on grounds of practicality NOT punishment) @UKLabour attacks @joswinson Wow! 5/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson Time for a quick reminder that @LibDems have been resolutely campaigning to #StopBrexit since well BEFORE UK voters (unwisely & very marginally) were duped into answering that daft, blind, binary, impossible question in 2016! And what about the financial consequences since? 6/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems No one is disputing the ball-park weekly HUGE £1bn HIT that UK is NOW enduring - repeat NO ONE. Many warned of this over 3 years back, and were spurned & derided by current Cabinet Ministers? for spinning a web of Project Fear. Sadly, it's now MUCH WORSE than most forecasts. 7/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems As @DanielJHannan said (pre-EUref) "Absolutely no one is talking about leaving the Single Market" (post-Brexit), it's fair to say that only a few (if any?) were talking about the UK losing a collosal £1bn PER WEEK (in opportunity cost terms) during the RUN-UP to #Brexit! 8/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan UK post-financial crash GDP%growth peaked at 3.1% in 2014 (in time for the 2015 election!) and has fallen YoY ever since? The latest forecast seen from @PwC (which may have been updated?) sees 1.1% in 2019. That feels optimistic, right now, with 'Do or Die' the PM's mantra! 9/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC For context, here's the 20 year UK GDP trend line - up to 2019. Estimates for 2020 et seq may vary wildly! 10/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC .@HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet remain wriggling on a huge self-pierced hook! Why? UK #Brexit impact assessments weren't released until AFTER #Article50 debate & trigger! So they 'resigned us' absent this data! 11/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet There are SO many problems/pitfalls re forecasting & data - but several points stand out from my lengthy multi-sector experience in Turnarounds & Cash Wars, foremost being: that Hard Data (when finally available) will typically lag it's causal factors, by circa 3-18 mths. 12/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet Crudely put, this 'lag' means that positive actions will take X months to bear countable/pickable fruit, whereas negative actions (or lack of corrective actions) will also take X months to fully hit P&L, Cash & Balance Sheet. 13/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet Hence, intelligent/sensitive financial forecasting (regularly reviewed/updated) is totally essential! - whether to the running of State Finances, PLCs or SMEs. In the case of UK, eg @TheIFS @OBR_UK should be watched carefully, as they re-adjust forecasts from fresh data. 14/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK Hard data is OK, but business confidence & consumer sentiment (which can be assessed, to some extent, using PMI's & Polling etc) are soft data, which can prove fickle. My own take is that they're atypically weak, right now, and BOTH will hit hard data over coming mths/qtrs. 15/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK So, I'm standing by c£1bn pw & rising (for now) as the present underlying #Brexit #Cash #AssetValue #Tax haemorrhage, much as the counting of that colossal bleed will take several months & GDP quarters to come through into hard UK economic data. cc @joswinson @EdwardJDavey. 16/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK @EdwardJDavey Sane folk have poured financial social & political scorn on HMG's (lack of) credible plans for the UK! and their apparent disregard for the growingly pervasive economic impact of #Brexodus! @uk_domain_names has led on THIS! Edwin's threads must be absorbed for full context! 17/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK @EdwardJDavey @uk_domain_names Edwin Hayward's @uk_domain_names work on the scale scope & depth of #Brexodus (which grows daily) has to be read in conjunction with EU manufacturers steadily extricating remaining UK-based firms from their complex JIT supply chains - in effect a ever-growing double whammy! 18/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK @EdwardJDavey @uk_domain_names Was reported months ago that UK firms had ALREADY been taken out of circa 50% of EU JIT supply chains. We must assume that this lengthy/complex process has continued, and is feeding #Brexodus from UK. Forecasting the eventual GDP hit? whenever that bottoms out? is not easy! 19/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady @joswinson @LibDems @DanielJHannan @PwC @HouseofCommons @UKHouseofLords @10DowningStreet @TheIFS @OBR_UK @EdwardJDavey @uk_domain_names We know of few, if any? compensatory positives awaiting us on #Brexit's other side! Ever-creeping #Brexodus £devaluation, higher inflation, SM/CU exclusion, GDP shrinkage, Job & TaxTake losses will ALL hurt for MANY years to come, quickly surpassing today's c£1bn pw costs. 20/20
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