The @mitenergy future mobility study & in particular, them projecting Li-ion #battery pack prices @ 124$/kWh in 2030 (based on Hsieh et al. doi.org/10.1016/j.apen…) seems to be sparking quite a debate. Here some context (1/12) #batterytwitter #energytwitter
@mitenergy Researching in a similar area, having read the paper multiple times, I like the level of detail, esp. in SI, providing an overview on the technological developments. This is important, as advances on the materials level can take many years before they become commercialized (2/12)
@mitenergy It brings attention to the FACT, that the cost of materials in a commercial Li-ion battery pack makes up for an increasing share of the total cost. Within these materials, in particular Li, Co and Ni have been of concern due to their reported price fluctuations (3/12)
@mitenergy The resulting 124$/kWh battery pack cost are based on a scenario assuming Co price increases of ~15$/kg/year, implying 2030 price of >200$/kg (current price acc. to LME 35-40$/kg, all-time-high ~90$/kg), as well as Li +1.9$/kg/yr and Ni +1.3$/kg/yr – all from 2016 baseline (4/12)
@mitenergy Study also finds 94$/kWh in 2030, if Li, Ni & Co stay at 2016 levels - as others have noted (@BenFranta), materials prices do not typically increase with increasing demand, even though we might see volatility due to massive ramp-up and long lead-times along supply chain. (5/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta In addition, with EVs becoming key market for Li, Ni and Co, much more focus on innovation for these metals, so that there is even hope for long-term declines from 2016 price levels. (6/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta Therefore: Depending on where you think metal pricing is going, $94/kWh in 2030 does not seem unreasonable based study by Hsieh et al. BUT WAIT, THERE IS MORE… (7/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta The study focuses on NMC (111->811) with Graphite Anodes, so we might see even lower prices considering: lower materials cost (see before), energy density might improve with Si-C anodes, higher voltages, … (8/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta And as @absmalhotra put it: “…SEVERAL chemistries have together comprised the historical LIB learning curve, and will continue to do so in the future.” – So there is hope (and first evidence) that we will see <100$/kWh pack prices by 2030 (9/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta @absmalhotra Additionally, as is pointed out before, the best-in-class firms are already close and as @JamesTFrith put it: “For BEVs that $100/kWh mark is getting closer and closer, simplified pack designs are helping the larger automakers get there» (10/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta @absmalhotra @JamesTFrith For the discussion on parity with ICEs, one additional, really important factor that $/kWh does not cover: improvements in performance, especially battery lifetime. (11/12)
@mitenergy @BenFranta @absmalhotra @JamesTFrith Improved materials, homogeneity in manufacturing, pack design, battery & thermal management systems and improved understanding of degradation mechanisms in general (see Jeff Dahn’s million mile battery jes.ecsdl.org/content/166/13… ) (12/12)
Additional context on lifetime: MIT Future Mobility study uses 150k miles (241k km) in 2019 as well as 2030, whereas e.g. @AukeHoekstra calculates 450k to 1350k km in 2019 here: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…; VW guarantees 160k km for their current model ID.3
@AukeHoekstra Addition: This is how Strategy Consultants from Roland Berger view the cell (not pack) cost breakdown for a 2020 NMC811 [in €/kWh]: rolandberger.com/en/Point-of-Vi… 
