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I don't think enough attention has been paid to this element of black political thinking when it comes to voting in the Democratic primary. It explains alot about Buttigieg, Harris, Booker and Castro's electoral challenges
For black America 2020 is a life of death election. 4 more years of Trump will normalize a level of white nationalism and violence that very few of us alive today are old enough to remember. Consequently we don't care about 'making history' we just need him out of office
So 'history making' candidates like Castro, Harris, Booker and Buttigieg are already viewed with skepticism by many black voters. Not because their policies or campaigns are bad but because black voters have every reason to distrust white voters, yes even Democrats
I have talked to non-political black people who say
"Yeah I love Kamala, but white folks aren't about to remove Trump with a black woman president." The same thing they say about Castro and Booker. Mayor Pete is a different animal but the same skepticism applies
The same working class, conservative, Trump adjacent white folks that the DNC is obsessed with are EXACTLY the kind of voters who won't vote for a gay white male candidate no matter how qualified he may be, and they'll never admit it in a poll, but they'll show you when they vote
Black voters see this, because black primary votes are always filtered through a calculus w/ what we believe white America will tolerate and go for, thus why Obama black support jumped after Iowa.
When I hear journalists/pundits say " When I'm outside of DC nobody asks about impeachment" I know they aren't talking to black people. EVERY black person who I run into who recognizes me from TV/Radio/Writing asks "Do you think we're gonna get rid of Trump ?"
People ask me "Why isn't Biden #1 in the Black Power Rankings every week? He's leading w/ black voters!" Because having black support doesn't mean you're the best FOR us, just the best option given overall white American opposition to our political goals. Same principle
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