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[Thread] about the proliferation of the M136 AT4 84mm HEAT Launcher in the Middle East.

There have been misconceptions about the proliferation of AT4 and therefore this thread.

First of all, all AT4 in the Middle East are made by the US.

1/
The parties who received the AT4 from the US.

-The Iraqi armed forces, they received about 3000 in 2015 as aid against ISIS.
-KRG's Peshermga, they received 1000 in 2015 as aid against ISIS.
-SDF/YPG/YGJ, received in 2017 about 1000 as aid against ISIS.

2/
-Lebanese armed forces bought 1000 in 2007.

Parties who use/own them but did not receive them from the US.

-The Islamic State, captured at least six from Iraqi security forces, mainly from ISOF.
-PKK/Kurdistan Workers Party, Turkish security forces seized at least 15 AT4

3/
and another was used in an attack in September 2019.
-Turkish backed Free Syrian / SNA, have captured three, two of whom were captured by Jaysh al-Islam and one by another small group that is part of the SNA.

4/
How the parties who haven't received from the US could have obtained them.

The Islamic State. The largest source of AT4 were captures from the Iraqi armed forces, mostly from ISOF, some could have been captured from the SDF, but if it is likely only a small percentage.

5/
Some of them could come from the Iraqi blackmarket, but if so they are likely only a small margin. They didn't have much AT4 likely only in the low hundreds at most. ISIS lacked anti-tank missiles and even manufactured some single use launchers themselves. ISIS fought

6/
against the Lebanese army, but it is not known that if they captured AT4s.

PKK. Most of their AT4 likely come from the Iraqi blackmarket, where AT4 are freely available, and most on the black market come from the Iraqi armed forces and probably some even from ISOF members.

7/
Another possibility is that some Peschmerga have sold their AT4, which is unlikely because it is extremely uncommon and is punished severely. Some claim that they all got these AT4 from the SDF/YPG are unlikely, though it could be that a few could have been transferred by

8/
low level personel, but not a big operation. There is no indication of proliferation of AT4, which the YPG received from the US, to the PKK, but there is a possibility that a few could originate from the SDF/YPG.

TFSA/SNA. During the operation "Peace Spring" factions of

9/
the TFSA/SNA captured AT-4, which later most likely appeared on the Idlib blackmarket. Although the AT-4 in idlib could also come from Iraq.

And another party that could likely get AT4 in the future are pro-regime forces that who could get from the SDF/YPG/YPJ.

10/
Conclusion: Groups obtain AT4 launchers mainly through captures and the blackmarket. The USA did not supply ISIS, PKK or FSA groups with AT4 launchers. There may have been transfers of AT4 from YPG to PKK, but if it is very limited and they were not the only source of PKK.
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