Thread by @MikeOtsuka

.@USSEmployers have released a Q&A for students👇about the #USS dispute with @ucu. My fact checking below of their answer👇to the question: "Why are the strikes happening?" 1/
ussemployers.org.uk/briefing-resou…

@USSEmployers @ucu "The USS pension scheme has over 200,000 members and it needs more money to meet their needs in the future."

Whether it *needs* more money is hotly disputed. @ucu's actuary @FirstActuarial has made a strong case👇that it doesn't need more money. 2/
ucu.org.uk/media/8705/Pro…

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial By contrast, in its 1st report, the Joint Expert Panel (JEP) did not take a stance on whether the scheme was sustainable in the absence of a rise in contributions beyond 26%. See👇for more on what JEP actually said, regarding contribution level. 3/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1196015975788879872

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial "Employers and individual members have been asked to pay more into the scheme to meet the higher cost of pensions."

The overall level isn't an "ask". It's a requirement. #USS trustee has the power to set the overall level of contributions required to cover pension benefits. 4/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial #USS has declared (via their 2018 valuation) that overall contributions need to rise from the 26% level prevailing before April of this year to 30.7% from this Oct to Oct 2021, after which point it's anticipated that contribution level will be set by the 2020 valuation. 5/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial .@TPRgovuk expressed "disappointment" that #USS did not call for a higher 33.7% rate to prevail during the next 2 years. 6/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1166353672118439936

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk Re👇, it's true that @USSEmployers have agreed to cover 65% of the rise from 26% to 30.7%. It's very unclear, however, that this is because they "care about their people" & "want them to have a secure financial future when they retire". 7/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk This is very unclear for the following reason: less than two years ago, @USSEmployers tried to eliminate future DB accrual & to move everyone over to a DC scheme that would have provided a much less secure financial future in retirement. 8/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk It seems clear that it was 14 days of strikes in 2018 & threat of future strikes -- rather than "care about their people" & concern for their financial security in retirement -- which have moved @USSEmployers to increase employer contributions from 18% to 21.1%.... 9/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk ...in order to preserve the existing level of DB benefits, which provide a promised & secure level of pension income in retirement. 10/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk Strictly speaking👇is true. But it's crucially lacking in any account of why @ucu members believe that @USSEmployers should bear all of the increase in contributions beyond 26%. 11/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk .@ucu maintain that @USSEmployers should bear all the cost of increases beyond 26% because employers didn't press #USS strongly enough to keep contributions at that level. See👇. 12/
ucu.org.uk/media/10394/UC…

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk For reasons I spell out👇, I'm highly sceptical of @ucu's claim that if only @USSEmployers had tried harder, they could have got #USS to submit a 26% valuation. 13/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1177918648591237127

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk Re @USSEmployers's concluding paragraph👇: whether 35% of the increase from 26% to 30.7% (i.e., an increase from 8% to 9.6%) constitutes a "fair contribution" for members to make turns on the question of whether employers are to blame for the overall increase to 30.7%. 14/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk If, as @ucu maintain, @USSEmployers are to blame for the increase to 30.7% because they didn't provide effective resistance to #USS, then the union has a strong case that employers should bear 100% of the increase from 26% to 30.7% & member rates should remain at 8%. 15/

@USSEmployers @ucu @FirstActuarial @TPRgovuk If, however, @USSEmployers achieved as much as could reasonably be expected in making the case for lower overall contributions, then their call for members to bear a lesser (c. 30-35%) share of the increase in contributions that #USS is imposing is justified. 16/16