THREAD: The collapse of civilization may have already begun – my major feature for @VICE exploring the big unresolved debate around the probability of a near-term event, global long-term risks, and most importantly, what happens after collapse /1 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE This has been a polarising piece. So I’m setting out key findings and questions here. The piece launches off from trying to assess Jem Bendell's warning of near-term societal collapse within 10 years due to climate change. Opens up other questions /2 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE On the question of whether near-term societal collapse is inevitable within 10 years, there is simply no scientific evidence to support this conclusion. Not a single scientist I spoke to would endorse this. Even Bendell described it as a 'guess' /3 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Top climate scientists like Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt, Joelle Gergis found the presentation of climate science behind the 'near-term collapse inevitable' scenario as deeply flawed, sometimes incoherent, and based on a mix of good and bad analysis /4 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE However, climate scientists like Joelle Gergis and Wolfgang Knorr point out that the latest climate models show the situation is worse than we thought; we could even already be about to experience abrupt climate change - we don't know for sure /5 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Dr Joelle Gergis, an IPCC lead author for 6th assessment, told me that at least eight of the new IPCC models produced by scientists in US, UK, Canada, France suggest a much higher climate sensitivity, implying worst-case BAU scenario of 7C by 2100 /6 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Climate scientist Wolfgang Knorr argued that we are on track within just 5 years to overshoot the carbon budget, heading toward a dangerous 1.5C rise (that could emerge from as early as 2030), impacting hundreds of millions worldwide. /7 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Scott Williams, a global disaster risk advisor to the UN, warned that global food system collapse or 'multi-breadbasket failure' within next decade, due to climate and other converging risks, could be 'close to' inevitable, but didn't say unavoidable. /8 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE The UN's global disaster risk assessment is consistent with other efforts to model complex risks to global food production, such as Anglia Ruskin Uni Dawe Global Security Model which sees major global food system crisis occuring in 2040 as a worst-case /9 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Climate scientist Tim Garrett provides a sobering assessment - to avoid a potential collapse of civilization due to climate change, the scale of the decarbonization is so huge it amounts in effect to a 'collapse' of civilization's energy consumption /10 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Garrett concedes that an unprecedented crash programme to transition to clean energy technologies is necessary, but might not avoid crisis; and exactly whether this can sustain growth and consumption patterns as we know them is an open question /11 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Climate risks need to be contextualised against deeper Human System-Earth System dynamics; such as captured in the Limits to Growth models. These forecast a longer-term collapse out to around 2050-2080 due to overconsumption & diminishing returns /12 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Luckily, we have evaded one of LTG/World3 model's worst-case scenarios. This shows that change is possible, and happening. But new studies testing the model reveal our pathway remains consistent with an LTG collapse trajectory this century /13 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE For me, the main takeaway, as Jeremy Lent told me, is that the chaos and uncertainty of the present is symptomatic of a global system undergoing a phase-shift to a new equilibrium. The old order is breaking down. What will take its place? /14 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Ugo Bardi's work on the 'Seneca Rebound' shows that civilizational collapses are usually followed by civilizational rebounds. This suggests that focus now must be on planting the seeds of, and enabling, rebound and renewal, a new Human System /15 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE We are living in uncertain times. The biggest wake-up for me was when IPCC's Joelle Gergis pointed out that we actually don't know for sure whether we have already breached some sort of major Earth System tipping point. We just. Don't. Know - Yet. /16 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE My view: It's irresponsible to make claims of inevitability which are not backed by the available data. But it's also irresponsible to claim that worst-case scenarios should not be seriously considered and prepared for given how much we don't know /17 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE What we do need are better, respectful, evidenced-based conversations capable of navigating the complexity of these issues, & embracing the reality of uncertainty; which in turn should underpin an urgent focus on building a new ecological civilization /18 vice.com/en_us/article/…
@VICE Civilization in its current form, premised on endless growth and massive inequalities, is unlikely to survive this century. It will either evolve, or be succeeded by, an 'ecological civilization', or it will, abruptly or slowly, regress and contract. /19 vice.com/en_us/article/…
