Thread by @lewis_goodall

As we enter week three, this is sum of where I think we are- combo of what I’ve seen and what I’ve heard. Usual caveats apply...

Labour

-Struggling with working class Leave voters, especially men.
-Generally middle class vote holding up, lots of tactical voting going on
-Corbyn bigger problem than Brexit, and is a big drag amongst traditional Lab voters, huge online campaign against him hitting home

-nonetheless Lab vote holding up better than is generally understood,
-activists generally felt things a bit more positive this weekend and have started to notice a change
-feeling is debates helped detoxify Corbyn a bit.
-WASPI announcement v helpful
-lots of youth registration

Conservative

-central bloc is more solid than Labour’s. Leave vote more or less completely absorbed
-Farage’s retreat v helpful
-Lots of enthusiasm amongst activists about BJ

-But BJ not popular in non-Conservative households. Some appeal among more working class leavers but not as many direct Lab/Con switchers as he prob needs atm.
-Debates aren’t doing him any favours
-lots of traditional Tory voters in south won’t vote for him

-BUT opportunities to come through middle in London seats where Lib Dems and Labour battling over who has best remain chance. Heard concern today for example about Hampstead and Kilburn and Tories coming through the middle...if happens in enough places BJ home and dry

Lib Dems

-Lots of Lib Dem despair on doorstep with Jo Swinson. She hasn’t gone down well, for whatever reason. Again doorknockers battling inspite of their leader, not because of her...
-Nonetheless, they’re excited about some real prospects in the south...

-tactical voting is happening in spades. Question is whether it’s happening enough.

I’ve heard some interesting things about Scotland but will reserve judgment til I’ve been there at the end of this week...

In summary, what’s remarkable is we have an election where to a greater or less an extent, all the national party leaders have become a liability. Huge numbers of undecideds. People still not engaging.

But I suspect Labour will start to close gap a bit soon, not least because so many undecideds are by inclination Labour voters. On the doorstep It’s not nearly as clear cut out there as headline polls indicate.

And the prospects of a big Tory majority is in some ways quite helpful to both Labour and the Lib Dems on the doorstep...

My instinct right now is as a result of people not liking the choice before them, and not wishing to break with tribal loyalty, will actively choose not to vote, as opposed to switch, we are looking at a relatively low turnout election. Could play havoc with results