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538 national polling average with Quinnipiac & other new national polls included.

Biden 26.1
Warren 17.3
Sanders: 16.6
Buttigieg: 9.2
Harris 4.0
Yang 2.8
Bloomberg 2.4
Klobuchar 2.1
Gabbard 1.7
Booker 1.6
Castro 1.0
Steyer 1.0
States (note: **numbers are adjusted for national trends**)

IA: Buttigieg 23.7—Sanders 19.0—Biden 17.1—Warren 14.4
NH: Sanders 17.7—Biden 16.6—Warren 15.9—Buttigieg 15.7
NV: Biden 27.0—Sanders 19.9—Warren 16.9—Buttigieg 8.8
SC: Biden 37.1—Sanders 13.3—Warren 10.6—Buttigieg 6.6
FWIW, states *without* the national trend adjustment.

IA: Buttigieg 21.5—Sanders 18.1—Biden 17.4—Warren 16.3
NH: Sanders 17.2—Warren 17.1—Biden 16.8—Buttigieg 14.4
NV: Biden 27.8—Warren 19.3—Sanders 18.7—Buttigieg 6.8
SC: Biden 37.6—Warren 12.9—Sanders 12.4—Buttigieg 5.0
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We've got a thing set up to anticipate how bounces from early states will affect national polls. Here's what it says the polls would look like nationally if all candidates exactly hit their current IA polls with Buttigieg winning IA

Biden—21%
Buttigieg—21%
Sanders—15%
Warren—13%
Just for fun, here's what it says what national polls look like post Iowa if Bernie wins Iowa with 25% of the vote, followed by Buttigieg (22%), Biden (17%) and Warren (13%):

Sanders—27%
Biden— 21%
Warren—14%
Buttigieg—12%
Anyway, we'll talk more about this stuff later. But one basic intuition is that Biden would probably indeed prefer Buttigieg to win Iowa rather than Sanders/Warren, because Sanders/Warren are stronger nationally and would be more likely to knock Biden out of 1st after an IA win.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Ehh, I think the conventional wisdom is right and Biden doesn't hugely mind Buttigieg doing well in Iowa.

A lot of older white and African-American voters wouldn't be thrilled with a choice between Buttigieg and one of Warren/Sanders and would want to keep Biden in the race.
Also, while it's true that how well a candidate performs relative to expectations* matters, lower expectations for Biden after IA/NH struggles could make a SC win a bigger deal.

* Empirically, "expectations" can be taken to mean "where the candidate is in national polls".
That is to say, in the branch of the tree where Biden is slumping, a Biden win in SC would likely be interpreted as a "comeback" and could therefore get him some pretty favorable attention heading into Super Tuesday.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One other thing I looked as whether experience has predictive power in the primary—experience being measured by highest elected office held (e.g. VP, senator, governor) with a discount if the candidate has been out of office for a long time.

Answer is a bit complicated.
Candidates who lack elected experience actually *are* more likely to see their polls decline. They have more trouble sustaining their position, in other words.

However, the effect goes away if you also control for endorsements & fundraising.
So far Buttigieg, for example, the potential issue is not *exactly* lack of experience unto itself, but that the lack of experience (for various reasons) may prevent him from getting endorsements, winning "buy in" from influential party members, etc.
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robjh1: The Conservative Black Cowboy
@robjh1
It's all about his ego. He want's to buy the election. If he enters it is proof the Democrats are comfortable with the current selection of candidates. #Bloomberg #Election2020 #VoteRedToSaveAmerica
He wants to buy the election. The thing about Bloomberg is he will run and then dictate how we should live our lives. He is also subject switch parties and become an independent.
Let's see how long it will take before he is hit with all sorts of #Metoo issues surrounding his company. 123...
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
#NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:

% support among likely voters (change v last month)
Warren: 28 (+4)
Biden: 25 (+1)
Sanders: 13 (-4)
Harris: 5 (0)
Buttigieg: 5 (-1)
Yang: 3 (+1)
Bullock: 2 (+1)
Klobuchar: 2 (+1)

All else ≤ 1%
% of Democratic primary voters considering voting for each candidate (over last month):

Warren: 55%
Biden: 47
Sanders: 39
Harris: 30
Buttigieg: 28
Booker: 18
O'Rourke: 16
Yang: 13
Klobuchar: 11
Castro: 11

All else < 10%
% of Democratic primary voters who would be disappointed if ___ candidate won the nomination (over the last month):

Williamson: 32
Gabbard: 23
Biden: 22
Delaney: 21
Steyer: 20
Sanders: 19
Bennet: 17
Yang: 17
O'Rourke: 16
Booker: 13
Buttigieg: 11
Warren: 8
Read 7 tweets
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FLIP NATION
@FlipNationUSA
#CandidateTweets on #Healthcare
The 20 major dems Bennet to Yang
#Bennet
#Biden
Read 24 tweets
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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
The Democratic field is effectively #Biden, #Warren, #Sanders, #Harris, and #Buttigieg

#DemDebate2
To clarify, I'm going by poll averages over the past few months. I don't think the debates have materially changed the dynamics of the race or altered the top tier.
That said, I think Biden's recent downward drift and Warren's rise will continue.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
So per @NBCNews, these are the latest fundraising rankings.
These are significant because #Warren is after #Sanders and #Harris in the polls where they rank 1st and 2nd (not counting Biden since he's not in) but her fundraising is below #Booker.
As these money rankings stay, Warren is in trouble for the debates like Castro and Gillibrand are because of the rules on how fundraising numbers = viability. Not making the debates would be terrible since #Warren & #Gillibrand are the most progressive & #Castro the only Latinx.
Also, these daily totals are averaged, but they aren't representative as a metric because all these candidates entered at different times & Sanders never stopped fundraising from 2016.
The question is, how much is no big donors hurting #Harris & #Warren?
Read 3 tweets

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