Ehh, I think the conventional wisdom is right and Biden doesn't hugely mind Buttigieg doing well in Iowa.
A lot of older white and African-American voters wouldn't be thrilled with a choice between Buttigieg and one of Warren/Sanders and would want to keep Biden in the race.
A lot of older white and African-American voters wouldn't be thrilled with a choice between Buttigieg and one of Warren/Sanders and would want to keep Biden in the race.
Also, while it's true that how well a candidate performs relative to expectations* matters, lower expectations for Biden after IA/NH struggles could make a SC win a bigger deal.
* Empirically, "expectations" can be taken to mean "where the candidate is in national polls".
* Empirically, "expectations" can be taken to mean "where the candidate is in national polls".
That is to say, in the branch of the tree where Biden is slumping, a Biden win in SC would likely be interpreted as a "comeback" and could therefore get him some pretty favorable attention heading into Super Tuesday.
