One other thing I looked as whether experience has predictive power in the primary—experience being measured by highest elected office held (e.g. VP, senator, governor) with a discount if the candidate has been out of office for a long time.
Answer is a bit complicated.
Answer is a bit complicated.
Candidates who lack elected experience actually *are* more likely to see their polls decline. They have more trouble sustaining their position, in other words.
However, the effect goes away if you also control for endorsements & fundraising.
However, the effect goes away if you also control for endorsements & fundraising.
So far Buttigieg, for example, the potential issue is not *exactly* lack of experience unto itself, but that the lack of experience (for various reasons) may prevent him from getting endorsements, winning "buy in" from influential party members, etc.
