Thread by @ADavidHaleJoint

Quick thread on the ACC’s terribleness.

Wake Forest had 10-win talent this year if it stayed healthy. It didn’t.

BC had 10-win talent last year, but there were holes, too, and it fell short.

NC State was very good in 2017 but not quite at Clemson level.

Those results shouldn't be surprising because while smaller ACC programs have done a great job of developing talent, it's nearly impossible for them to develop talent AND depth, so everything has to go perfectly for them to approach Clemson.

Cuse, Miami, FSU, UNC & VT have all had 10-win seasons in the past 5 years & UVA could do that this year. NC State, Lou & GT have had 9 win seasons.

The problem is, outside of Clemson, it hasn't been repeatable.

Here's the number of teams in each conf w/a 9-win season since 2015:
ACC - 10
B12 - 7
B1G - 9
P12 - 7
SEC - 11

But here's the number who've done it more than twice since 2015:
ACC - 1
B12 - 2
B1G - 6
P12 - 5
SEC - 4

It takes time to build a reputation, but ACC schools aren't winning consistently enough to do it, so outsiders aren't going to take Wake or Cuse or UVA seriously in the short term.

That’s reasonable. It’s nearly impossible for them to have the consistent depth to KEEP winning.

In terms of actual progress, it requires sustained investment, fan support and recruiting, which is also hard to do when things are inconsistent & teams like Cuse, WF, BC & Pitt are at a disadvantage here. They're capable of winning 10 -- but not likely to routinely win 10.

All of this gets back to the critical point here: It’s nice UVA is having a great year or that Cuse was good in ’18..

But the ACC desperately needs FSU, Miami (and to a slightly lesser degree VT, UNC & Lou) to be better -- not just for a year, but for the longterm.

So this offseason is absolutely critical for the league.

Will FSU make the right hire?
Can Manny Diaz build a real foundation at Miami?
Do Lville & VT build on solid but unspectacular seasons?

The league simply cannot afford for them to fall further behind.

By any reasonable metric, the American was as good or better than the ACC this year with far fewer resources. That simply can’t happen or the ACC is going to go back to the stone ages (i.e. 2004-11).

Maybe the playoff changes & ND can be forced aboard. Maybe UVA and UNC are building for the long haul. Maybe the entire underpinnings of the sport shift with player payments.

Those are small odds though.

The safest bet for the league’s future: Make FSU, VT & Miami Great Again.

One other tidbit:

Last 2 years, Clemson is 17-0 vs ACC w/avg margin of victory of 36 ppg & just 2 games w/in 14 pts.

Bama vs SEC: 15-2, 25 ppg
Ohio St vs B1G: 18-1, 24 ppg
Okla vs B12: 17-2, 14 ppg

Another issue for ACC...

Since 2001, FSU has 7 seasons of 10+ wins and 8 seasons of 5+ losses.

Since 2004, Miami has 6 seasons of 9+ wins and 8 seasons of 6+ losses.

Since 2006, VT has 4 seasons in which it cracked the AP top 10 & 6 seasons in which it finished unranked.