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Last night on @TheLastWord @Lawrence I explained why Ds fell short in the NC-9 special despite a pretty big Trump Bump that overall bodes well for Dem prospects in more competitive races. We didn't have long for the topic so here are more details.
Lean into being a Democrat. Turnout will be in the 30s, 40s, or 50s, NOT 80s. What will be determinate is the ultimate partisan breakdown of a low turnout electorate.
You need a big turnout surge of Dem voters & left leaning Indies, and for THAT, you need salience & inspiration.
You need a big turnout surge of Dem voters & left leaning Indies, and for THAT, you need salience & inspiration.
By minimizing being a Democrat, you are running from a position of weakness. You are running the same campaign as your opponents: "don't vote for me, there's something inherently flawed about me and my party's governing philosophy." Beyond your most committed voters, voters need
"stakes" to show up to vote. The GOP makes stakes by framing their races in a nationalized context: a vote for generic R is a vote in support of Trump. A vote against generic D is a vote to STOP Pelosi. They talk to voters in emotive, not analytic terms. They bring Trump into
the district for a rally the night before Election Day bc it increases the salience of the election. Its covered by the local news, it reinvigorates the local grass roots, but most of all it reminds local partisans that there is an election happening that they should vote in.
There were 80K less ballots cast in NC-9's 2019 special than in their 2018 election the year earlier. Although turnout declined on both sides, turnout declines among D voters due to a lack of salience via the McCready campaign's strategy was decisive.
BUT its important to note: these were not accidental mistakes by the campaign, they were the product of an intentional strategy that believes the path to victory in a low turnout, high R PVI race is via conversion of R voters &* not via turnout surges. So it was failure by design
Keep in mind, what I am arguing for (and about) is a major paradigm change FOR DEMOCRATS. But it is modis operandi for the GOP, who is only losing close elections right now bc D voters are naturally fired up about Trump. By and large, what we saw in 2018 was natural, not stoked.
