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Extreme weather not killing more

Each climate conference day, let's see the data

Today cold hazard:

Fewer people die from cold hazard, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And tomorrow we'll see the heat wave impacts (also down!)
Everyone keeps saying extreme weather is having a greater impact. For every day of the climate conference, let's see how this is wrong
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More from @BjornLomborg see all

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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Bad climate policies proliferating:

Sweden to cut transport emissions by 70% in 2030

Will cost $5bn (1% GDP loss) per year by 2030 if done *most* effectively

Will cut 10.1MtCO₂e, so $500/tonne. Damage reduction is $31/t so

$1 will deliver 6¢ of climate benefits

Congrats
1% of GDP by 2030 is government's own estimate
konj.se/download/18.db…

Doesn't include transition costs + make a number of other, unrealistically optimistic estimates (like vastly increased biofuels won't lead to price hikes) p74

They even call this 1% cost 'relatively low' :)
GDP of $506bn in 2030 from SSP2
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

10.1Mt from report, p8

Estimate of $31 across all SSPs and all damage functions, for 2030 from sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 5 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Extreme weather not destroying more

Each climate conference day, we will look at the data

Flash flood is not worse:

Lower share of economy damaged by flash floods, not higher (because of more resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Exactly what's found for floods and for mortality for all areas from last week
Some people have asked why the numbers only start in 1989 — it is because it is running 10-year averages (so 1989 is the average of 1980-1989).
Read 6 tweets
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Extreme weather not killing more

Each climate conference day, we have looked at the data

Flooding is not worse:

Fewer people die from floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And flash floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from flash floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And coastal floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from coastal floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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James Mitchell Ⓥ
@MesMitch
Climate emergency: The year 2019 was the second hottest on record for the planet’s surface, according to latest research. The analyses reveal the scale of the climate crisis: both the past five years and the past decade are the hottest in 150 years.
The succession of records being broken year after year is “the drumbeat of the Anthropocene”, said one scientist, and is bringing increasingly severe storms, floods, droughts and wildfires.
The previous hottest year was in 2016, the year that a natural El Niño event boosted temperatures. The new data is for the average global surface air temperature.
Read 9 tweets
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Ruth Mottram
@ruth_mottram
Amazing footage - apropos this and the Watson River flood of 2012, my colleagues and I were inspired to write a paper looking at the potential for high runoff events in the future in this paper researchgate.net/publication/32…
In our future #climate simulations the region in western #Greenland that includes #Kangerlussuaq from the #icesheet to the shores of the #DavisStrait we show how melt + runoff of early 2000s was outpacing mid-century projections*

*Caveat: only one GCM #ECEARTH shown here
The more extreme the scenario - the more extreme the projected melting, but note the very high interannual variability.
Read 10 tweets
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Elizabeth Sawin
@bethsawin
One thing in the way of effective action on our #climate crisis (and our toxics crisis, our biodiversity crisis, our plastics in the ocean crisis, not to mention our violence, war, poverty, racism, & sexism crises) is a terrible misunderstanding of who/what we are.
Many people speak about this as a spiritual/moral crisis and I agree. But, the misunderstanding I want to talk about is at once simpler and more profound.
(Note - when I say 'we' I mean those of us acculturated into the western industrial growth mindset, which in evolutionarily relevant timescales has only been around for a fleeting instant. Humans haven't always thought this way, and not all humans alive today think this way.)
Read 16 tweets
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Peter Gleick
@PeterGleick
1/3
 Dear Media, to avoid committing media malpractice, if you invite someone on your show to talk about #climate & they say:
"The climate has always changed."

You must immediately say "No, we understand all observed warming is now human caused, overwhelming any natural changes."
2/3
 If they say "It's cold out"
You must immediately say:
You're confusing "weather" and "climate." The world as a whole is warming. One cold day in one place doesn't disprove global climate science.
3/3
 If they say "The scientists are only in it for the money" you have two choices:

Say either "Scientists get paid far less than fossil fuel lobbyists & climate deniers, & whatever they're paid has no effect on the validity of the science."
Or call me for a "Fuck you" response.
Read 4 tweets
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Patrick Galey
@patrickgaley
Just returned from Bangkok, where nations made little progress towards finalising the Paris agreement on climate change that aims to limit global temperature rises over the next 80 years.

It was my first @UN #climate change rodeo and there were a few things I wasn't aware of
Under Paris, countries agreed to a fairly detailed set of promises to keep global temperature rises under 2C by 2100.

It was the first time all nations - both developed and developing economies - signed up to the same set of climate rules. But they weren't binding
Parties gave themselves in effect 3 years to come up with a text agreed by everyone, ratified, and translated into national law on a state-by-state basis. The idea is the accord isn't legally binding, but the rulebook it provides could be on a national level
Read 23 tweets
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Jason Mark
@writerfarmer
Late last night veteran #climate journalist @Revkin asked some sharp questions about @Sierra_Magazine’s “The Case for Climate Reparations,” spurred by an appreciative post from NYC Chief Resilience Officer @dzarrilli. Here’s my response …
My essay is only concerned with climate change-related damages in the US spurred, as I argue, by US actors like the oil majors. I could’ve written about Peruvian villagers suing a German energy giant & melting glaciers in the Andes, but that’s beyond the scope of my article.
So I had to identify extreme weather events in the US. As NOAA has reported, 2017 was the most destructive year on record for “natural” disasters. See this tracker ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summa…
Read 21 tweets

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