Thread by @BjornLomborg

Bad climate policies proliferating:

Sweden to cut transport emissions by 70% in 2030

Will cost $5bn (1% GDP loss) per year by 2030 if done *most* effectively

Will cut 10.1MtCO₂e, so $500/tonne. Damage reduction is $31/t so

$1 will deliver 6¢ of climate benefits

Congrats

1% of GDP by 2030 is government's own estimate
konj.se/download/18.db…

Doesn't include transition costs + make a number of other, unrealistically optimistic estimates (like vastly increased biofuels won't lead to price hikes) p74

They even call this 1% cost 'relatively low' :)

GDP of $506bn in 2030 from SSP2
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

10.1Mt from report, p8

Estimate of $31 across all SSPs and all damage functions, for 2030 from sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

The cost of this ineffective climate policy is almost twice the entire cost of Sweden's universities (0.6% of GDP)

scb.se/hitta-statisti…

Over the century, this policy will reduce the global temperature rise by 0.0003°C and cost Sweden $650 billion

Estimated from 1% of SSP2 Sweden GDP and IPCC estimate of 1,000Gt CO₂ delivers 0.45°C (of 10Mt x 70 yrs)

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rs…