Profile picture
, 10 tweets, 5 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Extreme weather not killing more

Each climate conference day, we have looked at the data

Flooding is not worse:

Fewer people die from floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And flash floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from flash floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And coastal floods are not worse:

Fewer people die from coastal floods, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And cold hazards are not worse:

Fewer people die from cold hazards, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And heat waves are not worse:

Fewer people die from heat waves, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And wind hazard is not worse:

Fewer people die from wind hazard, not more (because of higher wealth and resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Actually, ALL extreme weather is killing fewer people, not more

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Contrary to what the UN and everyone else will tell you; that you we need to do more, because of extreme weather has an ever-stronger impact, taking a larger toll

Here is the UN saying that: news.un.org/en/story/2019/…
Here is the whole overview of all mortality effects — down by 2 to 17 times from 1980-2016

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And here in tabular form

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Bjorn Lomborg

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BjornLomborg see all

Profile picture
Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Bad climate policies proliferating:

Sweden to cut transport emissions by 70% in 2030

Will cost $5bn (1% GDP loss) per year by 2030 if done *most* effectively

Will cut 10.1MtCO₂e, so $500/tonne. Damage reduction is $31/t so

$1 will deliver 6¢ of climate benefits

Congrats
1% of GDP by 2030 is government's own estimate
konj.se/download/18.db…

Doesn't include transition costs + make a number of other, unrealistically optimistic estimates (like vastly increased biofuels won't lead to price hikes) p74

They even call this 1% cost 'relatively low' :)
GDP of $506bn in 2030 from SSP2
tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Acti…

10.1Mt from report, p8

Estimate of $31 across all SSPs and all damage functions, for 2030 from sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Extreme weather not destroying more

Each climate conference day, we will look at the data

Flash flood is not worse:

Lower share of economy damaged by flash floods, not higher (because of more resilience)

From this new peer-reviewed article:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Exactly what's found for floods and for mortality for all areas from last week
Some people have asked why the numbers only start in 1989 — it is because it is running 10-year averages (so 1989 is the average of 1980-1989).
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
So, Denmark just passed its new climate law with everyone cheering

But no estimate of costs: Truth is, additional cost is 1-6% of GDP (>$120bn)

No estimates of benefits: Truth is, it will cut temperature in 2100 by a ten-thousandth of a degree Celsius

Nothing to celebrate
No official estimates. Costs estimated using Stanford Energy Modeling forum EMF28, and RICE

Temp benefit of 0.00001°C from UN standard estimate 1000GtCO₂=0.45°C, also from UN climate model MAGICC run

worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.114…
google.com/books/edition/…
live.magicc.org
Notice, this is only an estimate of the cost of the recent climate policies (i.e. going to 70% in 2030) and their increase in climate impacts,
here from my Danish article
berlingske.dk/kronikker/bjoe….
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
James Mitchell Ⓥ
@MesMitch
Climate emergency: The year 2019 was the second hottest on record for the planet’s surface, according to latest research. The analyses reveal the scale of the climate crisis: both the past five years and the past decade are the hottest in 150 years.
The succession of records being broken year after year is “the drumbeat of the Anthropocene”, said one scientist, and is bringing increasingly severe storms, floods, droughts and wildfires.
The previous hottest year was in 2016, the year that a natural El Niño event boosted temperatures. The new data is for the average global surface air temperature.
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
💧simon holmes à court
@simonahac
👇THREAD on @ScottMorrisonMP and #climate

no doubt the prime minister will have noticed the shift in the public mood, and the media, around climate change.

“climate and the environment” is literally top of mind.

afr.com/politics/feder…
morrison can implore us not to discuss climate change while the country is on fire, but as the fire chiefs have tried to tell him, we have months of fires ahead of us — this is the new normal.

unless australia gets a lucky break, this fire season is morrison’s "port arthur".
if @ScottMorrisonMP seeks to be a great PM, he needs to rapidly pivot to real #climate leadership — meaningful words and meaningful deeds.

to be meaningful:
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Ruth Mottram
@ruth_mottram
Amazing footage - apropos this and the Watson River flood of 2012, my colleagues and I were inspired to write a paper looking at the potential for high runoff events in the future in this paper researchgate.net/publication/32…
In our future #climate simulations the region in western #Greenland that includes #Kangerlussuaq from the #icesheet to the shores of the #DavisStrait we show how melt + runoff of early 2000s was outpacing mid-century projections*

*Caveat: only one GCM #ECEARTH shown here
The more extreme the scenario - the more extreme the projected melting, but note the very high interannual variability.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Dr Kim Nicholas
@KA_Nicholas
“Information is not enough for people to act.” #climate psychology, activism and anxiety by @FridaHylander at @SkaneXr @LUCSUS_LU
What's needed for people to #ActOnClimate? @FridaHylander uses "Model of helping" to understand #climate psychology.
To motivate action, people need to:
1. notice an event
2. interpret the problem as an emergency
3. feel personal responsibility.
1. Notice event- barriers to notice #climatechange include:
Humans perceive emotionally, not rationally
Slow gradual threats seen as risky as fast, vivid ones
"villains" are easier to blame than nature
Living in cities, far from nature
fragmented knowledge
-@FridaHylander
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Patrick Galey
@patrickgaley
Just returned from Bangkok, where nations made little progress towards finalising the Paris agreement on climate change that aims to limit global temperature rises over the next 80 years.

It was my first @UN #climate change rodeo and there were a few things I wasn't aware of
Under Paris, countries agreed to a fairly detailed set of promises to keep global temperature rises under 2C by 2100.

It was the first time all nations - both developed and developing economies - signed up to the same set of climate rules. But they weren't binding
Parties gave themselves in effect 3 years to come up with a text agreed by everyone, ratified, and translated into national law on a state-by-state basis. The idea is the accord isn't legally binding, but the rulebook it provides could be on a national level
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Jason Mark
@writerfarmer
Late last night veteran #climate journalist @Revkin asked some sharp questions about @Sierra_Magazine’s “The Case for Climate Reparations,” spurred by an appreciative post from NYC Chief Resilience Officer @dzarrilli. Here’s my response …
My essay is only concerned with climate change-related damages in the US spurred, as I argue, by US actors like the oil majors. I could’ve written about Peruvian villagers suing a German energy giant & melting glaciers in the Andes, but that’s beyond the scope of my article.
So I had to identify extreme weather events in the US. As NOAA has reported, 2017 was the most destructive year on record for “natural” disasters. See this tracker ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summa…
Read 21 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Religion #resistance #AntiCommunist #films #erosion #Rouhani #SocialismWorks #DNCCorruption #Russia #factchecked #SaudiWarOnYemen #MAGA #CapitalistLies #geography #Quito #truths #DialecticalMaterislism #PlaysOnWords #Oasis #Nature #RedScare #StupidLingo #WarCrime #ContactLenses #Tripoli
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!