Thread by @lewis_goodall

Where are we with one week to go? A thread:

In 2017 I went to a pool club in Northfield, near where I grew up in Birmingham. Whatever was being said nationally, it was where I realised the Labour vote was holding up.



It didn’t feel like this time.

Labour vote felt much softer.

Corbyn a much a bigger problem than in 2017. Then he barely seemed known.

The vitriol for JC now v strong from working class voters, mainly fuelled by Facebook ads. Repeated mentions of links to the IRA/terrorism, which have been circulated online

Brexit wasn’t an issue in 2017 for many of these voters. I remember a man looking at me like a fool when I connected the issue with voting Labour.

A complete transformation now. Party actively blamed for blocking Brexit/“ignoring our vote”. Tory messaging highly effective.

That said very little love from Lab inclined voters for Johnson, generally considered a knave or a clown. Most who voted Lab in 17 said they wouldn’t vote, or end up voting reluctantly for party at last moment.

However, Tory vote solid behind him in a way which JC not matching.

I’m cognisant that v often once you scratch the surface of some of the “I’ve voted Labour all my life but...” people, they stopped voting Lab years ago. There was a fair bit of that. But that wasn’t it. These were people who voted Lab in 17 and who are now in a different place.

Talk to activists and candidates this a repeated theme across the country. Labour’s fortunes resurrecting a bit in more middle class areas; but one theme is “it’s awful in the estates.” You hear it repeatedly. There’s truth to it, despite the fact there is no love of the Tories.

As one MP said to me just today “Corbyn is the far bigger issue than Brexit.” Among other things, beneath the surface, two years worth of online material has destroyed his reputation in these communities. You ask why they hate him so much, they can’t always answer. They just do.

Brexit though has damaged Labour in a more invidious way. Many working class communities feel that the Brexit process has proven that political change isn’t possible. Therefore, they are especially wary of the man and party promising them most change.

It’s like they don’t want to risk being fooled or taken in. So either won’t vote at all or gravitate to the man and party promising them little.

They’re so caustic about politics, that though they largely believe Johnson is a liar, it’s immaterial, it’s priced in and don’t care.

Then just across town, there’s the young. Every single one of the under 25s voting Labour. Virtually all of the 30 somethings too: “best Christmas present we could have is a Labour govt” one said. Excitement is real.

This for Lab perhaps patty’s best hope now. So many young registered for the first time. If there’s a surprise in this election, it will probably be why.

Corbynism has succeeded in creating a highly successful generational politics but failed in reconnecting the party with its core support, which once we were told it would. Perhaps it was always unrealistic.

In terms of demographic change, changes to the electoral map, changing composition suburbs and dormitory towns it feels Labour could have a really successful coalition on its hands.

In two electoral cycles time. Right now, it feels trapped

In the meantime, I can understand why Lab continues with the NHS “being on the table” attack. In a sea of Tory attack lines which were regurgitated verbatim, this was the only Labour island. Something which clearly gave those voters thinking about not turning out pause.

Caveats to this picture overall

-not that many Lab/Tory switchers
-lots of undecideds still, prob more likely lean Lab
-youth vote
-WASPI has been quite effective
-does Neilgate get through? (Plays into widespread suspicion of Johnson)
-Tactical voting

Oh and power of Lab groundgame

But it just feels like the Tories are on the advance in so many places, it’s hard to see how they’re not lucky enough in enough places to get at least a small majority.

But things are highly volatile. Lots of undecideds and Lab’s best hope is that there’s so little enthusiasm for the other side either and the psychological barrier which is still *enormous* to going Tory. It’s not over. But it is endlessly fascinating.

If you think I’ve got it right or wrong, or neither, or just if you want to tell me what you’re finding on the doorstep or in your community, I always want to hear it. DM me. As much as @LouisDegenhardt and I are trying in this campaign, we can’t get everywhere.

Have written some of my thoughts about all of this here, if you’re interested.

news.sky.com/story/general-…