Talked to Lab MP in previously solid northern seat yday. Is v worried. Thinks he’ll just about scrape it. Described problems of Corbyn and Brexit on doorstep as being “trapped in a pincer movement” (Corbyn being the bigger problem). Could deal with one or other but not both.
By contrast this MP told me he’s having the easiest time in his more middle class areas. Picture which I saw replicated in Leigh today. Local team of @JoPlattMP told me they’ve been amazed by the reception in leafy, previously Conservative areas “welcomed in for a cuppa.” 
Many in Leigh can’t quite believe it could now be a marginal and the attention they now have.
Local campaign infrastructure has had to be built up. Labour obviously have far more boots on the ground. Some frustration that party has been slow to recognise help that’s needed.
Local campaign infrastructure has had to be built up. Labour obviously have far more boots on the ground. Some frustration that party has been slow to recognise help that’s needed.
Strength of local campaigning makes a real difference. But it sounds like it’s been a tough, hostile campaign there. Just overnight, one of the activists had her Labour garden sign ripped off its post.
Again, same as elsewhere. Problem is with older men in the main and yes some of them did vote Labour in 2017. Saving grace for Lab is that again, there is no love for Johnson at all. Combo of direct switchers and others hovering between returning to the party and staying at home.
The fact, despite Corbyn and Brexit, that many of these voters are still hovering shows strength of historic Labour bond. This election, in many places, will be a test of just how deep that bond still runs.
Seats like Leigh have been trending away from Labour anyway. Seats like Altrincham, once true blue; not far away, trending towards it. 2019 on the surface seems to be putting the processes which propel those changes on steroids.
But then, that’s we said about 2017...
Either way, the voting coalitions of both parties, could look quite different after Thursday.
Either way, the voting coalitions of both parties, could look quite different after Thursday.
Essentially, in order for there now to be a big surprise Labour needs higher turn out from middle class, richer liberals than social conservative, poorer, working class voters. There also needs to be enough of the former in the right places. Tories need the opposite.
This is a peculiar inversion of most of our historic electoral patterns.
Tory strategy of losing remainer liberal votes in exchange for w/class votes could come unstuck:
-southern losses.
-congenital Labourism too hard to overcome in sufficent numbers, majorities just slashed.
-those voters are hard to turn out and Tories don’t have the activists.
-southern losses.
-congenital Labourism too hard to overcome in sufficent numbers, majorities just slashed.
-those voters are hard to turn out and Tories don’t have the activists.
One other thing, some concern from Labour in Leigh about voters who have only voted in referendum but didn’t in 2017. Feeling is they have been activated again in a way which they simply weren’t by May. Generally assumed new voters will help Lab but perhaps, not always...
