Thread by @atatimelikethis

I spent some time today out of London talking to what politicians call, "the common voter".

ie. My family, their friends at a party 😂

All worried about #GE19
In a marginal

Saw 2 big swing groups 🔄 that we are failing to reach

FOR RECOMMENDATIONS SKIP TO END. SEGMENTS NEXT

✅ 1 Used to be Tory 🔄
"Natural 1 nation Conservatives" angry and confused. They refuse to elect ERG/Boris, they're spitting.

I've never seen a tory lady of a certain age spit. Not nice.

The anger and contempt for their previous party incredible. "Wreckers" is their name.

✅ 2 UtbT 🔄
Lab don't be happy.
They won't vote for Corbyn ever, and they fear McDonnell more. "The architect, the real communist who wants to break it all".

Oddly entitled tho. Find labour scary, but demand attention "why didn't they find someone electable we could vote for"

✅ 3 UtbT 🔄
So LDs benefit right? No.

They say LDs are divisive "why the hell did cardigans choose this moment to go radical".

Prevailing wisdom was LDs might be democratic but not diplomatic. 2nd ref would have done same job, alienated fewer.

Think LDs create civil unrest.

✅ 4 UtbT 🔄
How will they vote?
Badly, randomly, unreliably. Might even vote Tory on autopilot.

They won't want to choose johnson, but this group only votes tory. Doesn't know how not to. And no one else has courted them.

And they will vote. Easy votes on the table. Neglected

✅ 5 Brexiter 🚫
We used to have one but he went remain when frictionless trade died.
Others may be in the closet.

So I asked "will of the people"
For this group that's manipulation.

"We didn't sign open ended cheque. No promises honoured means no democratic mandate to leave"

✅ 6 Brexit 🚫
How will they vote?

No Brexiters to ask so assuming they are not a swing group because brexit party offers no solutions.

If tories win they will fail badly. Then Nigel will rise again saying maybe, "Brexit wasn't wrong, but we need it harder and with more racism"

✅ 7 Lab/Lib 2🚫 1🔄

Please do not flame me.

The feedback in this section is harsh but we need to be realistic.

And some will object to putting LD and Lab together.
I'm afraid that's the some of thinking that causes this some of mess.

✅ 8 Lab/Lib 2🚫 1🔄
I don't want to group lib/lab But they are so intertwined that separating them is IMHO naive, limiting thinking.

So let's at least try to see why.

1. True Red lab
2. True Yellow LD
3. Anything But Tory. Mixed
4. MADs Mixed

✅ 9 Lab/Lib
True Red🚫
Borris tories live to demonise this lot - communists, cultists, economic fools

Bull. What I saw was *burning anger about social injustice". This group needs labour to win to reset balance.

They're already in full recrimination mode. But they'll vote lab

✅ 10 Lab/Lib
True Yellow🚫
New home of hardcore remain & rebuild UK democracy. I wrongly assumed i'd find them in ABTV.

Nope full LD.

"radical cardigans" rings true. One said "burn down Parliament"

Brexit woke, but radicalism due to "Selfish perversion of a 1000 yr democracy"

✅ 11 Anything But Tory 🔄
This is a pragmatic, intelligent group. Closest to True Red in outlook. More flexible in how. Nurses, teachers, office types in my sample.

tie with UTB tory for largest swing group.
Except ABT understand tactical

And they feel unloved, rejected. WTF?

✅ 12 ABT 🔄

This is my stance. So I'm trying just to copy my notes. FYI

How are they feeling?
Seething anger against corruption - same as Yellows
Burning anger of injustice me as the reds
Will to vote for anything that stops tories.

but all i heard was anger at lab/lds

✅ 13 Mutual Assured Destruction.🚫

First time I've seen them. Tactical vote reaction?

Philosophy - YOU are PARTY.
ALWAYS PARTY
NOTHING ELSE MATTERS

You cannot enable something bad you don't want because PARTY.

For progessivrs this is odd robotic stuff.
Hence M.A.D.

✅ 14 lib/lab
How they'll vote?

Red - Labour
Yellows - LD
ABTV - should be easy answer. I fear they are so disillusioned we risk them NOT voting
MADs. With party.
If their MP is not marginal expect them to travel to an opponent marginal to actively undermine other party.

MAD

RECOMMENDATIONS

✅15
As twitter handles we can not shift the course of campaigns in a week no matter how much we push anti tory propaganda.

But we can reflect, think, lobby and push ideas the parties need to deal with and even in a week, that can drive big change.

Criticise or share. Or both

✅16 REC
Opportunity.

Two swing groups
1. Used to be tories.
One nation The Coup made them 🤢

2. Anything but Tories
Mixed remainers

Together easily enough to prevent a #tory majority.
But maybe not a enable Lab majority.

If you care about Remain or injustice that's enough.

✅17REC HOW WE WIN

I'll cover each group and suggest but I need YOU👀 debating and sharing.

HQs rarely improve at this stage.

To that point there's no" SHOULD HAVE". I can wish for a lab/lib love in 7 weeks ago. We have a week. Don't reply with unhelpful SHOULD HAVE DONE

APPROACH FOR

Used to be Tory.

✅18 REC
Used to be Tory.

What is current strategy? - remind them why they hate Boris.

Why is that insufficient? - doesn't tell them what to do about that, they don't know who to vote for. They've never voted for anyone else.
lab and Lib dem seem to have flaws they can't accept

✅19 REC.
Which flaws?
The entire labour leadership team - no trust.
The primary lib dem policy - divisive.

What do they want?
Boris eliminated, tories constrained, never to hear "brexit" again

They're genuinely sick of Brexit. Less naive about getitdone than we think.

✅20 REC NEW STRATEGY
{or YOU☝ suggest?}

Nationally Lab & LD are trapped. Couldn't change even if they wanted to.

QED - local fight.
marginal, extories
focus on one candidate not 2 parties

"vote for me to limit Boris and an extremist Brexit"
lib/lab - one PPC stands DOWN

APPROACH for

Anything but Tory.

✅21 REC
Anything but Tory.

What is current strategy? - tell them they're stupid and disloyal to vote tactically.

Why is that insufficient? -
You're kidding? actively alienating them, shutting them down and making them less likely to vote.

Frustrated by progressive division.

.

Division?
You're kidding? Lab/lib spat instead of cooperation, flaws in lab/lib Brexit policies, no alignment, active party M.A.D. strategies that help tories.

What do they want?
Cooperation. Alignment Rationalism. fair Brexit process. Recognition of their Sacrifice

✅23 REC

Sacrifice.
There is no greater act of sacrifice than voting for the party you don't want locally to help the party you do want nationally.

Oh. Erm. I don't think everyone sees it that way. Some say disloyal?

Yeah, hence you're disfranchising them.

✅24 REC NEW STRATEGY
{or YOU☝ suggest?}

ABTVs matter to you in marginals... Two simple vote formula.

Party A - Party B > Tory 🥳
Party A - Party B < Tory 😡

If parties are equally sized all's fair. You create anger where they are not. Abtv know they won ALL 2017 marginals.

Suggestions

Make the choice
And for God's sake find some Swinton Corbyn love in opportunities this week, even if you cant actually change anything

AND that's a wrap folks

Retweeting is great

Continuing and improving.

That's a chance to win.