Thread by @p_chiocchetti

THREAD/ The full results of the UK general elections are now in #GeneralElectionResults

Turnout at 67.3%, slightly down. Main takeaways: (1) massive victory for the Conservatives, (2) collapse of Labour votes and seats, (3) further divergence of Scotland (SNP rise) and Northern Ireland (no unionist majority)

The large Conservative lead (11.4pp) translated in a comfortable majority of seats (365 out of 650) and scores of wins in the "red wall" in central-northern England (but losses in Scotland)

Detailed results are available from the BBC
bbc.com/news/election/…

The first survey data are coming out on electoral flows and drivers of the vote: @LordAshcroft lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-br…

@LordAshcroft Important factors for @LordAshcroft: Brexit, age, leadership, tactical voting

@LordAshcroft BBC maps and graphs bbc.com/news/election-…

@LordAshcroft Factors: Brexit, class, nations & geography

@LordAshcroft Analysis of constituency data by the @FT team
ft.com/content/bc09b7…

@LordAshcroft @FT Factors: class, turnout, Brexit party

@LordAshcroft @FT Analysis of constituency results by Paula Surridge @p_surridge theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge Strength of Brexit identities (left-wing leavers defected to Tories & Brexit Party, right-wing remainers did not switch so strongly to pro-remain parties)

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge So where did 2017 Labour voters go? Not exactly clear yet!
I tried to estimate electoral flows based on the election day survey of Lord Ashcroft (table below)

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge The table shows roughly equal gross losses to Con+Brexit (-4.0%) and to remain parties (-4.0%). Net losses are slightly stronger toward the former (-1.7%) than toward the latter (-1.3%). But... the totals for Labour are off!

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge If these flows would be correct, Labour would have got 37.4% of the vote instead of the 32.1% it got. Perhaps former Labour voters are shy about declaring their switch toward Tories and Brexit? Other survey-based and constituency-based analyses will hopefully help.

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge Where did 2017 Labour voters go? (No. 2)
The data from the pre-election survey from YouGov look more credible than the LordAshcroft one (table below)

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge Gross losses from 2017 Labour divide equally between leave parties (-5.0%) and remain parties (-4.9%). Net losses follow the same pattern: leave parties (-3.2%) and remain parties (-3.0%). Also, an unexpected no net gain of the Conservatives from UKIP/Brexit.

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge Altogether, the evidence available so far leaves no doubt that fence-sitting of Labour was a major factor in its heavy defeat (although the verdict on the relative merits of Brexit position, economic programme, cultural profile, and leadership is still on).

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge It looks unlikely that an all-out remain position would have led to victory: hard to imagine the LibDem squeezed below 7%, and the Conservative vote would have gone further up. A hung Parliament was also unlikely: remain support is more geographically concentrated.

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge A clear Labour leave strategy, on the contrary, COULD theoretically have led to a Labour victory or a hung parliament, by peeling off Conservative and Brexit leavers in the North and helping the LibDems in the South-East and the SNP in Scotland.

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge What remains to be seen, however, is how easily could leavers have been won back by Labour, and how. Would a pro-leave position have been enough? Which kind of position (soft or hard Brexit)? Would have shifts on cultural, economic issues and image been necessary? The media?

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge To sum up, the way forward for Labour seems to lie in offering a positive and progressive vision of a post-Brexit UK, instead of fighting the rearguard battle on stopping Brexit (or aligning as much as possible with the EU) it has been fighting for the last 2-3 years. / END

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge @threadreaderapp unroll

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge The new analysis by @DatapraxisEU also confirms the even split of 2017 Leave voters between Remain and Leave parties (partly based on the YouGov data mentioned above). Interesting discussion of the characteristics and motives of 14 "voter tribes"
dataprax.is/tory-landslide…

@LordAshcroft @FT @p_surridge @DatapraxisEU I meant 2017 LABOUR voters, of course