Thread by @p_chiocchetti

The path to the UK #GeneralElection2019 (thread)

The 2017 general election, called by Theresa May to strenghten her hand in Brexit negotiations, resulted in a hung parliament. Turnout was 68.7%, the highest since 1997. The conservatives won 42.3% of votes and 317 seats.

This was below the majority of the 650 seats of the House of Commons - which was actually 322 seats, when subtracting the seat of the Speaker (neutral) and the seven seats of the Irish nationalist Sinn Féin (abstentionist policy: does not take its seats in Westminster).

The Labour Party, led by its new leader Jeremy Corbyn, experienced a powerful surge during the official election campaign and almost caught up with the Conservatives, ending up with 40.0% of votes and 262 seats.

"Third" parties were squeezed: the UKIP collapsed to 1.8% (-10.8) & no seat, the SNP dropped to 3.0% (-1.7) & 35 seats, the Greens down to 1.6% (-2.0) but conserved its 1 seat, the Lib-Dems down to 7.4% (-0.5) but up to 12 seats, PC down to 0.5% (-0.1) but up to 4 seats

In Northern Ireland, the unionist DUP (10 seats, +2) and the nationalist SF (7 seats, +3) wiped out their traditional competitors, with 1 seats going to the independent unionist Sylvia Hermon

Altogether, the election marked an abrupt reversal of the long-term tendency toward an erosion of the UK two-party system, with Tories and Labour winning 82.3% of votes and 579 seats

So, a rise in turnout, a recovery of two-partyism, a Labour surge. What caused them? On the one hand, the two parties both promised to respect the result of the referendum (with a hard vs. soft Brexit), neutralising the threat of UKIP while keeping Remainers on board.

On the other hand, Labour polarised the campaign on socio-economic issues, tapping on the frustration with a decade of austerity.

Further readings:
1. House of Commons Library - full report and data files researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

2. Cowley & Kavanagh (2018). The British General Election of 2017. London: Palgrave.
palgrave.com/gp/book/978303…

3. Seymour (2017). Corbyn: The strange rebirth of radical politics. London: Verso.
versobooks.com/books/2511-cor…

4. Heath & Goodwin (2017) The 2017 General Election, Brexit and the Return to Two‐Party Politics: An Aggregate‐Level Analysis of the Result. The Political Quarterly
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

5. Mellon et al. (2018). Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election. Parliamentary Affairs
academic.oup.com/pa/article/71/…

6. British Election Study Internet Panel
britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/p…

After the election, Theresa May formed a minority government with the support of the DUP. Her attempts to settle the Brexit issue by rapidly passing a Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union, however, miserably failed.

On the one hand, hardline Brexiters (the European Research Group, the DUP, and Tory leavers such as Boris Johnson) refused to countenance key elements in her WA that would have kept the UK tightly linked with the EU indefinitely (the "backstop") researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

On the other hand, a group of Conservative Remainers (e.g. Letwin, Grieve, Boles, Clarke) was sceptical of the deal for the opposite reasons, seeking to cancel Brexit (revoke or people's vote) altogether, secure guarantees of a close future relationship, and prevent a "no deal"

The result was a stalemate, with the Government incapable to pass its WA (15 Jan, 12 Mar, 29 Mar), the Tory rebels unwilling to bring down the Government, and repeated art. 50 extensions to the expected exit day of 29 March 2019 (first to 22 May or 12 April, then to 31 Oct).

The stalemate deepened after the change of prime minister from Theresa May to Boris Johnson (24 July 2019). Johnson negotiated a revised Withdrawal Agreement which scrapped the all-UK backstop but agreed a Northern Ireland-only frontstop
gov.uk/government/pub…

Already on 3 September, his government lost its parliamentary majority due to the defection of Conservative remainers, who ruled out a no-deal Brexit (later he further lost the DUP support).

Parliament prevented Johnson to implement his programme AND to call for a snap election... but could not agree on a way forward either (e.g. a provisional non-Conservative government or a Second Referendum).

Parliament forced the Government to request a new extension (to 31 Jan 2019). The Government brought the new "deal" to Parliament on 22 Oct, but withdrew it when its compressed timetable was defeated. On 29 Oct, parties finally agreed to trigger a snap election for 12 Dec

The Brexit impasse threatened to revolutionize the UK political system, fracturing the two traditional ruling parties and feeding the rise of radical Leaver parties (Farage's Brexit Party) and Remainer parties (Lib-Dems, Greens, CHUK).

After the missed exit on 29 March 2019, Conservatives and Labour parties tanked. In the European Parliament election of 23 May, in which the UK was forced to participate, the Brexit Party came up first (30.5%) and the Lib-Dems second (19.6%).

In May-June, pinion polls for Westminster elections painted the picture of a 4-way race between roughly equal parties (Brexit, Lib-Dem, Lab, Con).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p…

Boris Johnson soon changed this state of affairs. By embracing a harder future Brexit and a harsh rhetoric on no deal and the Parliamentary blockade, he soon recovered many lost Leaver voters and encourage Farage to stand down in all Conservative-held seats.

Labour, in turn, was not so successful. The belated turn toward a second referendum made it hard to retain left-wing Leavers and increased its support among Remainers, where Lib-Dems (and SNP in Scotland) however stayed strong

The Labour Manifesto, which foresaw a massive rise in public spending and investment, galvanised the faithful. Doorstep and media campaigning was intense. And tactical considerations led many anti-Tory voters back to the fold.
labour.org.uk/manifesto/

However, its Brexit position on the one hand, and the unpopularity of Corbyn of the other hand, stood on the way of a repeat of the 2017 surge

In the last batch of opinion polls, the Tory lead remained large (5 to 12 percentage points). The @YouGov MRP poll estimated a strong Conservative vote (42.6%, 8.8-point lead) but a relatively small majority of seats (339)
d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_upload…

@YouGov On the basis of these polls, a Tory majority is likely (but could vary from large to tiny) but a hung Parliament remains a distinct possibility

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1201527216493993985

@YouGov Interestingly, the electoral system is clearly working against the Tories, translating a large lead in votes into a small majority of seats. Of course, the samples and weighting of pollsters may be off and late-campaign swings and tactical voting may also make a difference.

@YouGov What should we watch out for today?
1. Robert Ford (@robfordmancs) has an excellent hour-by-hour guide to election night
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…

@YouGov @robfordmancs 22:00 (GMT): voting closes, followed by exit polls
23:30: early results start to come in
01:00: first reports from the "red wall" of Labour/Leave seats
05:00: most results in, waiting for late-declaring seats

@YouGov @robfordmancs 2. Live election coverage
BBC bbc.com/news/election-…
SKY NEWS news.sky.com/story/general-…
GUARDIAN theguardian.com/politics/live/…

@YouGov @robfordmancs 3 Twitter Media
@BBCElection
@BBCPolitics
@britainelects
@SamCoatesSky
@lewis_goodall
@TomMcTague

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague 4 Twitter Academics
@whatukthinks
@robfordmancs
@drjennings
@p_surridge
@philipjcowley
@MiddletonAlia
@GoodwinMJ
@rogerscully
@BESResearch
@DrEuniceGoes
@merylkenny
@CairneyPaul
@ClarkAlistairJ
@PJDunleavy
@UKandEU
@ConUnit_UCL

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague @whatukthinks @drjennings @p_surridge @philipjcowley @MiddletonAlia @GoodwinMJ @rogerscully @BESResearch @DrEuniceGoes @merylkenny @CairneyPaul @ClarkAlistairJ @PJDunleavy @UKandEU @ConUnit_UCL ... and many others (here's the @PolStudiesAssoc directory)
psa.ac.uk/media/experts-…

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague @whatukthinks @drjennings @p_surridge @philipjcowley @MiddletonAlia @GoodwinMJ @rogerscully @BESResearch @DrEuniceGoes @merylkenny @CairneyPaul @ClarkAlistairJ @PJDunleavy @UKandEU @ConUnit_UCL @PolStudiesAssoc I'll keep you posted later tonight! #GeneralElection2019 / END.

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague @whatukthinks @drjennings @p_surridge @philipjcowley @MiddletonAlia @GoodwinMJ @rogerscully @BESResearch @DrEuniceGoes @merylkenny @CairneyPaul @ClarkAlistairJ @PJDunleavy @UKandEU @ConUnit_UCL @PolStudiesAssoc @threadreaderapp unroll

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague @whatukthinks @drjennings @p_surridge @philipjcowley @MiddletonAlia @GoodwinMJ @rogerscully @BESResearch @DrEuniceGoes @merylkenny @CairneyPaul @ClarkAlistairJ @PJDunleavy @UKandEU @ConUnit_UCL Erratum: correct handle is @roger_scully

@YouGov @robfordmancs @bbcelection @BBCPolitics @britainelects @SamCoatesSky @lewis_goodall @TomMcTague @whatukthinks @drjennings @p_surridge @philipjcowley @MiddletonAlia @GoodwinMJ @rogerscully @BESResearch @DrEuniceGoes @merylkenny @CairneyPaul @ClarkAlistairJ @PJDunleavy @UKandEU @ConUnit_UCL @PolStudiesAssoc Foreign language coverage
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